Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 936
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 1, 2017, 4:20 PM CDT for 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 55 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 1, 2017, 4:20 PM CDT (21:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 1, 2017, 5:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, El Paso County, TX, Hudspeth County, TX, Irion County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Val Verde County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 166 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 126 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -71 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 979 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -14 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -11 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
981
ACUS11 KWNS 012120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012120
TXZ000-012215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0936
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017
Areas affected...A small part of southwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012120Z - 012215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A bowing segment has organized across Pecos County, Texas
in the past 1-2 hours, with additional trailing activity along an
outflow boundary to it's west/southwest. A WW is not anticipated
for this activity.
DISCUSSION...Storms in southwest Texas have begun to propagate
slowly eastward - particularly across Pecos County, Texas - over the
past hour or so, with additional activity developing westward into
southern Hudspeth County and near the El Paso area. Strong surface
heating within the pre-convective airmass ahead of this linear
complex has fostered moderate to strong destabilization, with recent
objective analyses suggesting up to 4000 J/kg MUCAPE just southeast
of the Pecos County linear segment and somewhat lower instability
values farther to the west. Deep shear is modest in the region,
with 20-25 kt mid-level flow not necessarily supportive of
convective organization, although development of new updrafts along
the leading edge of the slow-moving outflow will aid in some forward
propagation. An isolated hail/wind threat will spread
eastward/southeastward from the current position of the outflow (and
near/ahead of ongoing storms). This threat should be too
sparse/localized for a WW issuance, although convective trends will
be monitored through the afternoon.
..Cook.. 06/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...
LAT...LON 29660338 29860421 30700512 31480615 31740639 31850620
31570510 31200365 31290313 31500242 31550166 31280089
30730040 30070037 29650086 29770147 29860215 29720282
29660338Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.