Mesoscale Discussion 930

Issued

May 31, 2017, 1:45 PM CDT (18:45 UTC)

Expired

May 31, 2017, 2:45 PM CDT

In force

60 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

808 
ACUS11 KWNS 311845
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311845 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-311945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0930
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

Areas affected...Eastern KS...Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...

Valid 311845Z - 311945Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms will continue to develop across eastern KS
spreading into west-central and southwest MO this afternoon.  While
large hail has been, and should continue to be, the primary severe
risk with the northern cluster of storms spreading from eastern KS
into west-central MO, an additional threat for damaging winds can be
expected with storms moving from southeast KS into southwest MO.

DISCUSSION...Objective analyses based on the RAP indicated a
moderately unstable environment has developed along and south of a
surface front which stretched from central MO into central KS this
afternoon.  Vertically veering wind profiles with southerly surface
winds in the warm sector and 30-40 kt west-northwesterly winds at
500 mb will continue to result in sufficient effective bulk shear of
35-40 kt across KS into MO.  These factors coupled with steep
midlevel lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km spreading across the discussion
area suggest additional large hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible.  The latter threat will be greatest in southeast KS into
southwest MO where low-level lapse rates are expected to be steeper.

The primary forcing mechanism for the increase in thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon appears to be a midlevel perturbation
tracking through eastern KS at this time per water vapor imagery. 
This trough and attendant forcing for ascent will spread into
central and southern MO this afternoon and evening, supporting
additional storm development and severe threat.

..Peters/Hart.. 05/31/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   36509276 36509312 36509411 36509451 36509462 37009506
            37389508 37549508 37569508 37819508 38689506 38749505
            38849461 38839416 38839412 38529306 37479269 37259268
            37249268 37169268 37119268 37099268 37069269 36509276
            36509276

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.