Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 76
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 19, 2017, 5:56 PM CST for 17 counties in Alabama; 12 counties in Florida; 4 counties in Georgia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 19, 2017, 5:56 PM CST (23:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 19, 2017, 8:00 PM CST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 33 counties
Baldwin County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Butler County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dale County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Pike County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Escambia County, FL, Franklin County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL, Clay County, GA, Early County, GA, Miller County, GA, Seminole County, GA
The radar
The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 11.9 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 922 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 25 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 1 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
262
ACUS11 KWNS 192357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192356
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-200200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0076
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southern Alabama and the Florida
panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192356Z - 200200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Occasional strong wind gusts may accompany a band of
thunderstorms as it shifts eastward across portions of southern
Alabama and the Florida panhandle this evening. Watch issuance
currently is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Over the last two hours, the regional radar mosaic
indicates that a band of thunderstorms along the central Gulf Coast
has developed a leading stratiform region. This evolution is likely
in response to the arrival of strong west/southwesterly anvil-layer
flow, favoring downstream hydrometeor advection/seeding. In turn,
the overall strength of convection has trended downward, as modest
stabilization occurs ahead of the system. Nonetheless, occasional
weak embedded rotation within line segments may still materialize
this evening, as suggested by a fairly straight hodograph in KMOB
VAD wind profile data. These convective elements could encourage a
few strong wind gusts, as positive theta-e advection from the Gulf
of Mexico occurs ahead of the line. The tornado threat, while
non-zero, appears minimal, as surface pressure falls (and resultant
backed winds) remain displaced farther north.
..Picca/Edwards.. 01/19/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...
LAT...LON 30288858 32018785 32038685 31928541 31818494 31578477
31338475 30848461 30418462 29648481 29668522 30218667
30178782 30288858SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 3:10 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Autauga, Baldwin, Barbour, Bibb, Bullock, Butler and 29 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.