Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 705

May 12, 201722 counties in Alabama

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 12, 2017, 10:56 AM CDT for 22 counties in Alabama. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 12, 2017, 10:56 AM CDT (15:56 UTC)
Expired
May 12, 2017, 1:30 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 22 counties

Bibb County, AL, Blount County, AL, Calhoun County, AL, Cherokee County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Clay County, AL, Cleburne County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Cullman County, AL, DeKalb County, AL, Etowah County, AL, Jackson County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Madison County, AL, Marshall County, AL, Morgan County, AL, Randolph County, AL, Shelby County, AL, St. Clair County, AL, Talladega County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL

The radar

The Birmingham radar (KBMX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 3.9 hours before the alert went out and 64 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2017-05-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 53 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2017-05-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -23 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
53 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
835 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-23 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
110 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

776 
ACUS11 KWNS 121556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121556 
GAZ000-ALZ000-121830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Fri May 12 2017

Areas affected...Central and Northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121556Z - 121830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for hail and marginally severe wind gusts will be
possible across parts of central and northern Alabama late this
morning into early this afternoon. Weather watch issuance appears
unlikely across central and northern Alabama this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
place across much of central and northern Alabama where surface
dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F and the RAP is estimating
MLCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. A small cluster of
thunderstorms is ongoing in northwest Alabama just ahead of a
vorticity max moving through eastern Mississippi evident on water
vapor imagery. Large-scale ascent associated with the vort max will
help to support continued thunderstorm development in north-central
Alabama over the next few hours. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP in
northern Alabama shows 0-6 km shear of 45 kt along with some
directional shear in the lowest 2 km AGL. This could support a
marginal severe threat with the stronger multicells or weak
supercells. Hail could occur with updrafts that rotate and
marginally severe wind gusts could occur along the leading edge of
the stronger downdrafts.

..Broyles.. 05/12/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   32758684 32778568 33218521 33718535 34428548 34858596
            34848649 34538684 33928715 33438764 32868748 32758684

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 12, 9:56 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCWashington3 hr
May 12, 10:35 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaldwin, Escambia, Mobile5 hr
May 12, 1:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlount, Calhoun, Cherokee, Clay, Cleburne, Cullman and 7 more2 hr
May 12, 1:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaldwin, Barbour, Butler, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington and 8 more108 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.