Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 702

May 11, 201712 counties in North Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2017, 10:12 PM EDT for 12 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 63 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 11, 2017, 10:12 PM EDT (02:12 UTC)
Expired
May 11, 2017, 11:15 PM EDT
In force
63 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Beaufort County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Greene County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lenoir County, NC, Martin County, NC, Nash County, NC, Pitt County, NC, Wake County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Newport, NC (KMHX), launched 00:00Z, 2.2 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2017-05-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 769 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2017-05-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 87 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
769 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1520 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
87 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
124 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
2.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

419 
ACUS11 KWNS 120213
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120212 
NCZ000-120315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Areas affected...Central and eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211...

Valid 120212Z - 120315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues in WW 211, and cannot be
completely ruled out southeast of the watch area after about 03Z.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms capable of a hail and wind
damage are ongoing in portions of the watch.  These storms are along
and just north of a nearly stationary surface boundary oriented from
near RDU to near EWN.  Despite residing just on the cool side of
this boundary, storms have been able to remain near-surface-based
owing to mid-60s dewpoints, while a more southeasterly component to
the surface winds have enhanced low-level shear to foster some storm
organization/occasional supercell structures.  A linear segment has
organized and propagated across the Raleigh/Durham area, producing
several reports of wind damage.  Other isolated storms east of this
complex may foster a marginally severe hail threat.  These storms
will continue to migrate southeastward toward the NC coast and may
maintain a localized severe threat in these areas as storms
propagate into a moderately unstable downstream airmass.  Convective
trends will be monitored, and local extensions of WW 211 may be
needed to address the threat toward 03Z.

..Cook/Hart.. 05/12/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   36137860 36227794 36137730 35797679 35437679 35167730
            35127775 35267844 35567902 35827921 35907921 36137860

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 12, 2:06 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuncombe, Burke, Cherokee, Clay, Cleveland, Graham and 12 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.