Alert archive / Oregon / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 650

May 4, 201713 counties in Oregon; 10 counties in Washington

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 4, 2017, 7:48 PM PDT for 13 counties in Oregon; 10 counties in Washington. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 4, 2017, 7:48 PM PDT (02:48 UTC)
Expired
May 4, 2017, 9:15 PM PDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 23 counties

Clackamas County, OR, Columbia County, OR, Gilliam County, OR, Hood River County, OR, Jefferson County, OR, Lane County, OR, Linn County, OR, Marion County, OR, Morrow County, OR, Multnomah County, OR, Sherman County, OR, Wasco County, OR, Washington County, OR, Benton County, WA, Clark County, WA, Cowlitz County, WA, Kittitas County, WA, Klickitat County, WA, Lewis County, WA, Pierce County, WA, Skamania County, WA, Thurston County, WA, Yakima County, WA

The nearest sounding before it

Salem/Mcnary, OR (KSLE), launched 00:00Z, 2.8 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Salem/Mcnary, OR at 00:00Z on 2017-05-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 25 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Salem/Mcnary, OR at 00:00Z on 2017-05-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 36 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
25 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-264 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1796 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

161 
ACUS11 KWNS 050249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050248 
ORZ000-WAZ000-050415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 PM CDT Thu May 04 2017

Areas affected...Portions of western/northern OR and
southern/central WA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193...

Valid 050248Z - 050415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and gusty winds will
continue in and near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193 in the short
term. The overall severe risk should slowly diminish over the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to scattered convection that formed this
afternoon along/west of the Cascades has produced some large hail
and damaging wind reports across western OR/WA. East of the Cascade
crest, thunderstorms have struggled to intensify this evening,
although gusty winds may still occur with ongoing convection there
given a well-mixed boundary layer and large surface
temperature/dewpoint spreads. As of 0245Z, the strongest cells
remain along and west of the Cascades in southern OR in closer
proximity to large-scale ascent associated with an approaching
upper-level trough/low. The kinematic environment remains favorable
for organized updrafts, with effective shear of 40-50 kt per 00Z
soundings from SLE/MFR and 02Z RAP Mesoanalysis. Isolated large hail
and strong to locally damaging winds will remain possible in the
short term, primarily in and near southern portions of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 193. However, the loss of daytime heating will
result in further lessening of already weak instability (MLCAPE
generally 500-1000 J/kg), and the overall severe risk should slowly
diminish over the next few hours.

..Gleason.. 05/05/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR...

LAT...LON   42812204 42492231 42472292 46092332 46742337 47092290
            47572119 47552007 46481929 45111930 44802063 43892171
            42812204

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 5, 2:16 PM PDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaker, Malheur, Union, Wallowa119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oregon, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Washington, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.