Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 641

May 3, 20176 parishes in Louisiana; 18 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 3, 2017, 3:48 PM CDT for 6 parishes in Louisiana; 18 counties in Texas. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 3, 2017, 3:48 PM CDT (20:48 UTC)
Expired
May 3, 2017, 5:15 PM CDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 24 counties

Acadia Parish, LA, Allen Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Angelina County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Houston County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Newton County, TX, Orange County, TX, Polk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Tyler County, TX, Walker County, TX

The radar

The Lake Charles radar (KLCH), 117 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2017-05-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2161 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 12:00Z on 2017-05-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 154 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2161 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-30 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
549 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
197 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.2
Supercell composite
12.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

042 
ACUS11 KWNS 032049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032048 
LAZ000-TXZ000-032215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0641
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Wed May 03 2017

Areas affected...southeast Texas through southwest Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 190...

Valid 032048Z - 032215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 190 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado watch 190 will likely need to be replaced by
another WW before expiration time of 22Z. Isolated large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the main threats though a couple of
tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue developing along a southeast-advancing
cold front across a portion central through northeast TX as well as
north of a large convective outflow boundary across southern LA.
Atmosphere is moderately to strongly unstable over southeast TX, and
storms will likely continue developing along the cold front/outflow
boundary intersection and some distance south along the cold front
into southeast TX this evening. Southward extent of development will
be limited by a stronger cap and tendency for deeper forcing
associated with the shortwave trough to remain north of warm sector.
Deep-layer winds and effective bulk shear have increased and are
sufficient for organized structures including supercells, but
low-level hodograph size is limited in warm sector. Primary threats
should be large hail and damaging wind, but a conditional risk for a
couple of tornadoes will exist with storms interacting with
modifying outflow boundary.

..Dial.. 05/03/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   30899596 31399539 31939421 31009314 30089219 29609256
            29839374 29579488 30209535 30899596

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 3, 7:04 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 13 more86 min
May 3, 7:32 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 24 more9 hr
May 3, 10:07 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Beauregard and 21 more83 min
May 3, 12:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBossier, Caddo5 hr
May 3, 1:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Assumption, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 11 more62 min
May 3, 3:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBossier, Caddo91 min
May 3, 5:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Bienville, Calcasieu, Cameron and 10 more7 hr
May 3, 6:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, Saint James and 3 more96 min
May 3, 1:30 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCollingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hemphill, Wheeler2 hr
May 3, 7:48 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Delta, Fannin, Franklin and 11 more117 min
May 3, 11:23 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoryell, Dallas, Ellis, Falls, Freestone, Henderson and 9 more2 hr
May 3, 1:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Coryell and 31 more87 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.