Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 64

January 17, 201712 counties in New York

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 17, 2017, 11:10 AM EST for 12 counties in New York. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 17, 2017, 11:10 AM EST (16:10 UTC)
Expired
Jan 17, 2017, 5:15 PM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Fulton County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-01-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2017-01-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 14 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1651 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
109 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

561 
ACUS11 KWNS 171610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171610 
NYZ000-172215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Areas affected...From central New York into parts of the North
Country

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 171610Z - 172215Z

SUMMARY...Areas of mainly light freezing rain are expected to
develop across central and northern New York today.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis at 16Z shows sub-freezing
temperatures from central into northern NY, with several areas
colder than forecast by RAP or NAM point forecast soundings. This is
resulting in ongoing freezing rain along a Syracuse Johnson City
line currently.

Aloft, an area of warm advection will persist ahead of a weak
shortwave trough, with the 850 mb freezing line well to the
northeast of the discussion area. Therefore, precipitation should
remain liquid with either rain or freezing rain, depending on the
surface temperature. Despite some diurnal warming, a saturating
column should result in cooling, with a few pockets of sub-freezing
temperatures remaining especially in higher elevations.

..Jewell.. 01/17/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42867618 43357653 43677655 44037685 44287660 44437588
            44227467 43957406 43797380 43357393 42817368 42577401
            42907488 42957519 42827550 42607577 42737609 42867618

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.