Mesoscale Discussion 522

Issued

Apr 19, 2017, 7:01 PM CDT (00:01 UTC)

Expired

Apr 19, 2017, 8:30 PM CDT

In force

89 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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817 
ACUS11 KWNS 200002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200001 
KSZ000-NEZ000-200130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0522
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0701 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Areas affected...Central and Northeast KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149...

Valid 200001Z - 200130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 149
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue for the next
few hours along the southern end of a cold front pushing through
central KS. Primary severe threat is large hail. Isolated hail and
damaging winds gusts are also possible with the cluster of storms
moving southeastward across western KS.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developed rapidly over the past hour and
half along a cold front tracking southeastward into northeast and
central KS. Latest surface analysis placed this front from BIE in
southeast NE to just southeast of RSL in central KS to north of DDC
in southern KS. Expectation is for this front to continue pushing
southeastward with the ongoing storms expected to persist for at
least the next few hours. The downstream environment across
northeast KS is already stabilizing somewhat. The stabilizing trend
is expected continue with storm intensity gradually decreasing as a
result. Storms along the southern end of the line should persist
longer given the presence of better low-level moisture and
instability as well as increased convergence resulting from a
strengthening low-level jet.  These storms also have the highest
likelihood of severe as they encounter the better instability.
Primary severe threat remain large hail with some damaging wind
gusts also anticipated.

Farther northwest, a pair of storms developed near the central KS/CO
border behind the cold front with recent radar scan suggesting these
storms are quite intense (i.e. MESH around an inch and over 50 dBZ
on the 9 km CAPPI). Recent storm motion on this cluster is estimated
to be southeastward at 40 kt. The downstream thermodynamic
environment is not overly favorable, but enough instability exists
for storm persistence, particularly given the strength of the bulk
shear. Deeply mixed downstream environment is favorable for damaging
wind gusts and some severe threat could result as this cluster
continues southeastward. A local watch extension may be needed to
cover this potential threat.

..Mosier.. 04/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39110184 38859994 38959954 39389901 39989821 40299689
            40219562 39669508 37979586 37099871 37570124 39110184

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.