Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 490

April 14, 20176 counties in Kansas; 7 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 14, 2017, 4:17 PM CDT for 6 counties in Kansas; 7 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 14, 2017, 4:17 PM CDT (21:17 UTC)
Expired
Apr 14, 2017, 6:15 PM CDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
40%

Counties Decatur County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Norton County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Dawson County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Red Willow County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 12:00Z on 2017-04-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE at 12:00Z on 2017-04-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 218 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
581 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
218 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
419 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

382 
ACUS11 KWNS 142117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142117 
NEZ000-KSZ000-142315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2017

Areas affected...Southwest Nebraska through northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 142117Z - 142315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated storms are expected to develop from
northwest Kansas into southwest Nebraska early this evening. Large
hail and damaging wind will be the main threats. Trends will
continue to be monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening a warm front extends from a surface
low over southwest NE, eastward through southern NE. A dryline
extends from the low through western KS. East of the dryline, strong
diabatic warming of the boundary layer where dewpoints are in the
upper 50s, has contributed to moderate instability with MLCAPE from
2000-2500 J/kg in the presence of steep low to mid-level lapse
rates. Visible imagery shows deeper cumulus increasing just east of
the dryline over western KS and in vicinity of the warm front across
southwest NE, and thunderstorms are expected to develop by 22 or
23Z. With only weak forcing aloft and presence of a capping
inversion at 800 mb associated with the elevated mixed layer, storm
coverage could remain somewhat limited. Effective bulk shear from
30-35 kt in the presence of moderate instability will support mostly
multicell as well as marginal supercell structures.

..Dial/Hart.. 04/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   41099991 40849913 40219897 39669928 38740026 38860079
            39850080 40700086 41099991

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 14, 6:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Boone, Buffalo, Clay, Custer, Dawson and 21 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.