Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 484

April 11, 201754 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 11, 2017, 5:23 AM CDT for 54 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 11, 2017, 5:23 AM CDT (10:23 UTC)
Expired
Apr 11, 2017, 7:30 AM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 54 counties

Anderson County, TX, Angelina County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Bosque County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Comal County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Hays County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hill County, TX, Houston County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Madison County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Milam County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Navarro County, TX, Panola County, TX, Polk County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Rusk County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Travis County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Walker County, TX, Washington County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Wood County, TX

The radar

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 46 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 238 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2017-04-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 143 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2017-04-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 60 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
143 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-246 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1066 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
60 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
190 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
5.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

791 
ACUS11 KWNS 111024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111023 
LAZ000-TXZ000-111230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 AM CDT Tue Apr 11 2017

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140...

Valid 111023Z - 111230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 140
continues.

SUMMARY...Increasingly isolated severe risk remains across WW 140 --
primarily in the form of large hail.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to isolated thunderstorms continue either
side of an east-northeast to west-southwest frontal zone draped
across central Texas.  Storms have diminished in coverage within the
WW area itself, with a cell now over Bell county currently the only
storm that appears capable of producing severe weather at this time.

Meanwhile, more widespread storms are ongoing both north and
northeast of the watch.  The storms north of the watch -- which
earlier posed a risk for marginal hail -- seem to have diminished in
intensity to generally below severe levels at this time.  Meanwhile,
a semi-organized/bowing cluster of storms is moving out of eastern
portions of the WW -- into an increasingly stable environment.

Given overall trends -- both environmentally and in radar evolution,
prospects for any appreciable increase in severe risk seem minimal
over the next few hours.  As such, the currently scheduled 12z
expiration time for WW 140 appears reasonable.

..Goss.. 04/11/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   29339809 29589900 30339845 31019848 31999827 33019511
            32269399 31069422 30409508 29609713 29339809

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 10, 9:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Brazos and 44 more85 min
Apr 10, 11:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco and 33 more8 hr
Apr 11, 2:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco and 54 more115 min
Apr 11, 1:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAransas, Atascosa, Bee, Bexar, Brazoria, Caldwell and 18 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.