Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 451
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 5, 2017, 7:19 PM EDT for 14 counties in Kentucky; 28 counties in Ohio; 16 counties in West Virginia. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 5, 2017, 7:19 PM EDT (23:19 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 5, 2017, 9:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 58 counties
Boyd County, KY, Carter County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Pike County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wolfe County, KY, Athens County, OH, Belmont County, OH, Coshocton County, OH, Delaware County, OH, Fairfield County, OH, Franklin County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Guernsey County, OH, Hocking County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Licking County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Monroe County, OH, Morgan County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Muskingum County, OH, Noble County, OH, Perry County, OH, Pickaway County, OH, Pike County, OH, Ross County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Tuscarawas County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Boone County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV
The radar
The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1143 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 66 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 135 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 229 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
715
ACUS11 KWNS 052320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052319
WVZ000-OHZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-060145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0451
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 PM CDT Wed Apr 05 2017
Areas affected...Southern and central Ohio...western West
Virginia...and far eastern Kentucky
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 052319Z - 060145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Areas downstream of WW 128 are being monitored for
convective potential after about 01Z. A new severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is being considered.
DISCUSSION...A broken band of strong to severe convection continues
across southwestern Ohio and central Kentucky. These storms were in
a strongly sheared, weakly to moderately unstable environment and
have a history of numerous reports of large hail, wind damage, and
few tornadoes. These storms were moving rapidly northeastward
(45-60 knots) and should reach eastern portions of WW 128 around
00-01Z.
Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the extent of the severe
threat downstream of these areas. Although surface temperatures
have warmed into the upper 70s in portions of the discussion area,
mid-40s dewpoints are contributing to negligible buoyancy
unsupportive of convection. An increasing low-level jet across the
region may foster some moist advection in the region, although
models/observations only support low- to mid-50s dewpoints
developing in the region after dark, supporting very modest
instability. Any convection that can persist in this weakly
unstable environment may foster a severe threat owing to very strong
mid/upper flow and convection fostering downward transport of that
momentum to the surface, although the persistence of this convection
with time into the evening remains in doubt. Convective trends
will be monitored.
..Cook/Guyer.. 04/05/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...
LAT...LON 40448304 40618273 40668205 40508140 40068090 39368089
38788106 37828156 37508176 37338210 37438265 37478310
37598347 37798368 38008373 38298352 38508319 40448304SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2:02 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boyle, Butler and 33 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 5, 2:50 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bourbon and 59 more | 8 hr |
| Apr 5, 2:59 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 11 more | 3 hr |
| Apr 5, 4:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Daviess, Gallatin and 9 more | 5 hr |
| Apr 5, 4:51 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Boyle, Breckinridge and 35 more | 84 min |
| Apr 5, 5:47 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Campbell, Kenton | 88 min |
| Apr 5, 7:57 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Anderson, Bath, Bell, Bourbon, Boyle and 54 more | 48 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.