Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 433

April 4, 20175 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 4, 2017, 7:40 PM CDT for 5 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 65 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 4, 2017, 7:40 PM CDT (00:40 UTC)
Expired
Apr 4, 2017, 8:45 PM CDT
In force
65 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Barry County, MO, Christian County, MO, Greene County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Stone County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 44 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 8 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2017-04-05Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 326 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2017-04-05The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 312 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
326 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-51 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1384 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
312 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
743 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.0
Supercell composite
12.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

759 
ACUS11 KWNS 050041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050040 
MOZ000-050145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Tue Apr 04 2017

Areas affected...Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121...

Valid 050040Z - 050145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 121
continues.

SUMMARY...A semi-focused damaging wind/some tornado risk should
continue to develop northeastward through 01Z-02Z (8-9pm CDT) across
southwest MO, including the I-44 corridor from near the Mount Vernon
area northeastward toward the Springfield metro. A spatial extension
of the existing watch will be necessary.

DISCUSSION...A strong supercell with a history of probable tornado
damage near Goodman MO continues to steadily progress northeastward
across southwest MO, approaching I-44 and the Mount Vernon MO
vicinity as of 730 pm CDT. While the background environment is not
overly moist or unstable amidst only lower 50s F surface dewpoints,
adequate low-level moisture/buoyancy exists coincident with a
corridor of strong low-level shear and 3+ mb/2-hour pressure falls
near a warm front as it parallels I-44 through the Springfield area.
While the the longevity of a semi-discrete-supercell-related tornado
risk is not certain, an impactful severe risk (damaging winds at the
very least) should continue to favor the warm front including areas
near/south of I-44 and the Springfield metro through mid-evening.

..Guyer.. 04/05/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...

LAT...LON   36529411 36939423 37429376 37509304 36749312 36529411

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 4, 9:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChristian, Dent, Douglas, Howell, Laclede, Oregon and 8 more4 hr
Apr 4, 9:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChristian, Dallas, Dent, Douglas, Greene, Howell and 11 more92 min
Apr 4, 11:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Crawford, Dent, Howell, Iron, Madison and 7 more97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.