Mesoscale Discussion 424

Issued

Apr 3, 2017, 6:41 PM EDT (22:41 UTC)

Expired

Apr 3, 2017, 7:45 PM EDT

In force

64 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Wilmington radar (KLTX), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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550 
ACUS11 KWNS 032241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032241 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-032345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0424
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 PM CDT Mon Apr 03 2017

Areas affected...Central/eastern North Carolina and eastern South
Carolina

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 120...

Valid 032241Z - 032345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 120
continues.

SUMMARY...A thunderstorm wind threat will continue with a line of
storms moving eastward across WW 120, with a more limited downstream
threat across portions of eastern North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...The severe threat across roughly the eastern half of WW
120 continues.  A strong to severe squall line continues to move
east-northeastward at around 40 knots across the discussion area and
extends from just west of Raleigh/Durham, NC southward to near
Florence, SC and near Charleston, SC.  These storms are in an
environment characterized by relatively weak instability (around 500
J/kg MUCAPE in North Carolina increasing to around 1000-1500 J/kg
along coastal South Carolina areas) and strong low-level and deep
shear which has fostered organization and some bow/LEWP-type
activity.  Although a tornado cannot be completely ruled out, the
primary damaging-wind threat should persist across eastern portions
of the watch over the next 1-2 hours.  Storms should reach the
eastern extent of the watch across southern NC around 0030-0130 UTC.

Beyond that timeframe, storms should continue to persist, although
thermodynamic profiles are expected to exhibit weakening
surface-based instability with time.  Some isolated wind/tree-damage
threat should exist east/northeast of WW 120 and although the
likelihood of a new downstream severe thunderstorm watch appears low
at this time, convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Cook/Edwards.. 04/03/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   36287951 36507905 36557805 36527635 36177562 35617547
            35007594 34637680 34197777 33657847 33087902 32307958
            31868007 31528080 31428133 31538145 32428126 33738035
            34867989 35857968 36287951

Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.