Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 41

January 14, 201732 counties in Illinois; 17 counties in Indiana; 24 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 14, 2017, 2:14 AM CST for 32 counties in Illinois; 17 counties in Indiana; 24 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 14, 2017, 2:14 AM CST (08:14 UTC)
Expired
Jan 14, 2017, 8:15 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 73 counties

Bond County, IL, Calhoun County, IL, Christian County, IL, Clark County, IL, Clay County, IL, Clinton County, IL, Coles County, IL, Crawford County, IL, Cumberland County, IL, Douglas County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Effingham County, IL, Fayette County, IL, Greene County, IL, Jasper County, IL, Jersey County, IL, Macon County, IL, Macoupin County, IL, Madison County, IL, Marion County, IL, Monroe County, IL, Montgomery County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Pike County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Saint Clair County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Washington County, IL, Boone County, IN, Brown County, IN, Clay County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Greene County, IN, Hendricks County, IN, Johnson County, IN, Marion County, IN, Monroe County, IN, Montgomery County, IN, Morgan County, IN, Owen County, IN, Parke County, IN, Putnam County, IN, Sullivan County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Vigo County, IN, Callaway County, MO, City of Saint Louis, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Iron County, MO, Jefferson County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Madison County, MO, Maries County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Osage County, MO, Perry County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Saint Charles County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Saint Louis County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Warren County, MO, Washington County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2017-01-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lincoln, IL at 00:00Z on 2017-01-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 160 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1206 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
81 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
160 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
411 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

533 
ACUS11 KWNS 140814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140814 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-141415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Areas affected...parts of east-central MO...south-central and
central IL...west-central and central IN

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 140814Z - 141415Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates 0.05-0.10 inch per 3 hours are
forecast during the late overnight across the middle MS Valley and
this morning over parts of the Wabash Valley.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 08 UTC shows widely scattered showers
across the middle MS Valley within a moderately strong belt of
west-southwesterly flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer.  Surface analysis
indicates temperatures are at or below freezing from portions of
southeastern MO and extending to the northeast across south-central
IL and into southern IN.  The freezing line is forecast to be
quasi-stationary during the next 6 hours.  Above the near-surface
layer, temperatures are around 8 deg C at 850 mb--resulting in a
thermal profile supportive of freezing rain.  Host of deterministic
model and short-term ensemble guidance suggests showers will
gradually increase in coverage and rates will slowly intensify
within a corridor from near St. Louis over the next several hours
and move eastward along the IL/IN I-70 corridor towards Indianapolis
by this morning.  Freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.10 inch per 3 hours
are forecast in areas, especially where the showers exhibit some
convective characteristics and locally augment rates.

..Smith.. 01/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   38569211 39799152 40158745 40088625 39738595 39238608
            38528903 37439002 37189074 37439169 38569211

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 14, 10:27 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Delaware, Fayette, Hamilton, Hancock, Henry and 6 more4 hr
Jan 14, 5:41 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCNewton3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.