Mesoscale Discussion 372

Issued

Mar 29, 2017, 7:34 PM CDT (00:34 UTC)

Expired

Mar 29, 2017, 9:00 PM CDT

In force

86 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

616 
ACUS11 KWNS 300034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300034 
ARZ000-MOZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-300200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Areas affected...PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...

Valid 300034Z - 300200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100 continues.

SUMMARY...Some potential for occasional damaging winds and a tornado
or two continues across eastern portions of the watch. Farther
southwest near the Arklatex, thunderstorms may increase in coverage
through the evening, with a conditional threat for a few damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing threat for damaging winds and a couple
tornadoes is focused over northeastern portions of Tornado Watch 100
this evening. Several cells in this area have exhibited supercell
structures, with occasional mid/low-level rotation noted on regional
radars. The 00Z LZK sounding as well as recent VWP data indicate
sufficient veering of low-level flow with height, supportive of
occasional rotation as these cells interact with a corridor of upper
50s/lower 60s dew points. This zone of favorably backed surface flow
ahead of ongoing convection should continuing shifting northeast
towards Missouri over the next few hours, with the resultant spatial
maximum in tornado/damaging-wind potential also gradually lifting
into Missouri later this evening.

Farther southwest, sustained convection has struggled to organize
near the Arklatex, likely due to some subsidence aloft in the wake
of prior ascent. However, as another wave of ascent rotates around
the main trough and reaches the region late this evening,
moistening/cooling aloft may sustain more organized convection, with
an attendant threat for a few damaging wind gusts and perhaps a
tornado.

..Picca.. 03/30/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON   33059495 34389466 36549305 36489158 35099238 33389343
            32939423 33059495

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.