Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 340

March 26, 2017Milam County, Robertson County, Williamson County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 26, 2017, 11:40 PM CDT for Milam County, Robertson County, Williamson County, Texas. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 26, 2017, 11:40 PM CDT (04:40 UTC)
Expired
Mar 27, 2017, 1:15 AM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Milam County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Williamson County, TX

The radar

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 41 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2017-03-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 892 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2017-03-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 184 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
892 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1866 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
184 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
259 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
12.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

510 
ACUS11 KWNS 270441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270440 
TXZ000-270615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Areas affected...Parts of central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 270440Z - 270615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/severe storm development is expected to
diminish to the south/southeast of the Waco/Temple area within the
next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Isolated vigorous convection persists across parts of
central Texas, to the south of Waco, in the presence of strong
vertical shear and moderately large mixed layer CAPE.  Although
low-level moistening continues, the loss of daytime heating has
resulted in increasing inhibition for boundary layer parcels. 
Activity does appear to be maintaining frequent lightning flash
rates, but radar data indicates at least some recent weakening of
convection.  With upper support for large-scale ascent becoming more
unclear, and likely diminishing, weakening storm trends seem likely
to continue and result in increasingly negligible severe weather
potential through 06-07Z.  Until then, lingering convection may be
capable of producing marginally severe hail and/or a few strong
surface gusts.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 03/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   31159701 31359650 30739637 30499707 30759800 30869718
            31159701

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 26, 7:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCollin, Dallas, Delta, Ellis, Fannin, Grayson and 4 more90 min
Mar 26, 8:49 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBowie, Camp, Cass, Franklin, Morris, Red River and 1 more6 hr
Mar 27, 12:44 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBowie, Cass, Franklin, Morris, Red River, Titus61 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.