Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 331

March 25, 201715 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 25, 2017, 1:34 PM CDT for 15 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 116 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 25, 2017, 1:34 PM CDT (18:34 UTC)
Expired
Mar 25, 2017, 3:30 PM CDT
In force
116 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Attala County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Leake County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Webster County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 211 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2017-03-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 233 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2017-03-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 131 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
233 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
545 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
131 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
196 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

323 
ACUS11 KWNS 251834
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251834 
MSZ000-252030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Areas affected...central through north central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251834Z - 252030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will pose some risk for a few instances of hail and
strong to locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon. A ww issuance
will probably not be necessary unless more storms begin to show
signs of further intensification and organization.

DISCUSSION...a small cluster of thunderstorms which appears to have
initiated within pre-frontal confluence zone and in association with
a northeastward-ejecting vorticity maximum has intensified over west
central MS. Destabilization of the boundary layer has occurred, and
objective analysis is indicating MLCAPE from 500 to 800 J/kg.
However, the instability corridor is relatively narrow due to
widespread clouds and convective precipitation attending a squall
line just downstream. The cluster of storms will develop northeast
into northern MS next couple hours where effective bulk shear from
30-40 kt is sufficient for updraft rotation. However tendency will
be for mid level winds and deep-layer vertical shear to gradually
weaken as the upper trough advances east. The narrow instability
corridor and weakening winds aloft suggest the severe threat will
likely remain relatively confined in space and time. In the
meantime, the stronger storms will remain capable of a few instances
of large hail and damaging wind.

..Dial/Guyer.. 03/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   32349056 33279020 34048973 34038884 33188907 32188991
            32059045 32349056

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 24, 11:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Claiborne, Humphreys, Issaquena, Jefferson, Sharkey and 2 more64 min
Mar 25, 12:05 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Bolivar, Claiborne, Humphreys, Issaquena, Jefferson and 5 more5 hr
Mar 25, 1:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Coahoma, DeSoto, Lafayette, Marshall, Panola and 4 more115 min
Mar 25, 3:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Claiborne, Copiah, Franklin, Hinds, Holmes and 10 more54 min
Mar 25, 12:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGeorge, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.