Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 1685

October 2, 201725 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 2, 2017, 7:14 PM CDT for 25 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 2, 2017, 7:14 PM CDT (00:14 UTC)
Expired
Oct 2, 2017, 9:15 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 25 counties

Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Jewell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Ness County, KS, Norton County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Smith County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wichita County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2017-10-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2098 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 00:00Z on 2017-10-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 71 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2098 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-53 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1361 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
234 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.0
Supercell composite
10.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

192 
ACUS11 KWNS 030015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030014 
KSZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1685
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0714 PM CDT Mon Oct 02 2017

Areas affected...western and north-central KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 492...

Valid 030014Z - 030215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 492 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms with embedded supercells have
developed across west-central KS.  These storms are capable of
producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a perhaps a few
tornadoes. A tornado watch remains in effect.

DISCUSSION...Rigorous thunderstorm development continues to occur
within a moderately unstable airmass, where MLCAPE ranges from
1500-2000 J/kg, and impressive effective bulk shear exceeding 60 kt.
Low-level shear should continue to increase this evening as shown on
the Goodland VWP, where 0-1 km shear is near 40 kt and some
strengthening of the winds has occurred just above the surface. The
low-level jet should intensify this evening, helping to increase the
tornado potential, particularly for the ongoing supercell and any
other storm that becomes anchored along the north-east oriented
surface boundary.

..Karstens.. 10/03/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37640197 38440194 39200085 39770015 39949885 39809815
            38739877 37660048 37480149 37640197

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 2, 8:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne2 hr
Oct 2, 9:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEllis, Finney, Gove, Graham, Lane, Logan and 9 more89 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.