Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 166
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 9, 2017, 4:55 AM EST for 7 states. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 9, 2017, 4:55 AM EST (09:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 9, 2017, 11:00 AM EST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 88 counties
Berkshire County, MA, Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Belknap County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Bronx County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Kings County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, Kent County, RI, Providence County, RI, Bennington County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1178 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -68 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -15 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
727
ACUS11 KWNS 090955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090955
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-091600-
Mesoscale Discussion 0166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Thu Feb 09 2017
Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania into southern New England
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 090955Z - 091600Z
SUMMARY...Snow will increase in intensity as it develops eastward
across the region with the heaviest rates over 2"/hr from late
morning into the afternoon. Areas currently experiencing rain from
New Jersey towards Long Island will turn to heavy snow before noon.
Snow rates are likely to become even heavier after noon across
southern New England.
DISCUSSION...A large area of precipitation persists this morning
with heavy snow extending across eastern PA and southeast NY. The
rain/snow line as of 4 AM local time extended from just northwest of
the Philadelphia area across northern New Jersey to just north of
Long Island.
Moisture and lift will continue to increase across the region as a
surface low deepens to the south and shifts northeastward. Extreme
lift and plenty of moisture in the favorable dendritic growth zone
will maximize heavy snow potential. Any rain should change to all
snow by early afternoon with 1-2"/hr rates common. Beyond 10 AM and
east of the MCD area, rates may increase to 3-4"/hr across southern
New England including the Boston vicinity, peaking between noon and
4 PM.
..Jewell.. 02/09/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 43667137 42777058 42607050 42377063 42187084 41777124
41147210 40767274 40517339 40337377 40047408 39827454
39847546 40047595 40277647 40537671 40977675 41777648
42927511 43737411 44067296 44137218 43987180 43667137SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 11:05 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 4 hr | |
| Feb 9, 3:20 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 6 hr | |
| Feb 8, 9:40 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Blair, Butler, Cambria and 17 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.