Alert archive / Vermont / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 152
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 7, 2017, 5:44 PM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 7, 2017, 5:44 PM EST (22:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 7, 2017, 10:45 PM EST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 29 counties
Franklin County, MA, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Clinton County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT
The radar
The Burlington radar (KCXX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1093 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 72 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 127 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 253 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
511
ACUS11 KWNS 072245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072244
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-080345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0444 PM CST Tue Feb 07 2017
Areas affected...Northeast NY...Most of VT and NH...Northern
MA...Far southwest ME
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 072244Z - 080345Z
SUMMARY...Mixed winter precipitation is expected over the region as
precipitation transitions from snow to sleet to freezing rain and
eventually to all rain. Freezing rain rates may exceed 0.03" to
0.05" an hour.
DISCUSSION...Surface observations across northeastern NY, southern
VT, and northern MA have been reporting freezing rain rates around
0.03" to 0.06" per hour with ice accretion up 0.05" in the last
hour. General expectation for the next few hours is for
precipitation to continue across this region but warming mid-level
and surface temperatures will promote a transition to all rain.
Farther north, ongoing light to moderate snowfall is expected to
gradually transition to sleet as mid-level temperatures warm within
the warm conveyor while surface temperatures remain in the mid to
upper 20s. The sleet is then expected to transition to mostly
freezing rain as mid-level warming continues amidst gradual surface
warming. Freezing rain rates near 0.03 to 0.05" per hour are likely.
An eventual transition to all rain is currently expected later
tonight.
..Mosier.. 02/07/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 43567482 44357503 45047401 44427142 43207055 42377170
42387325 43567482Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.