Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 1239

July 5, 201721 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 5, 2017, 9:22 PM CDT for 21 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 5, 2017, 9:22 PM CDT (02:22 UTC)
Expired
Jul 5, 2017, 10:15 PM CDT
In force
53 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%
All 21 counties

Bedford County, TN, Cheatham County, TN, Davidson County, TN, Dickson County, TN, Giles County, TN, Hickman County, TN, Houston County, TN, Humphreys County, TN, Lawrence County, TN, Lewis County, TN, Marshall County, TN, Maury County, TN, Montgomery County, TN, Perry County, TN, Robertson County, TN, Rutherford County, TN, Sumner County, TN, Trousdale County, TN, Wayne County, TN, Williamson County, TN, Wilson County, TN

The radar

The Nashville radar (KOHX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 2.4 hours before the alert went out and 72 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2017-07-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 487 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 00:00Z on 2017-07-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 34 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
487 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-66 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
889 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
34 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
75 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

397 
ACUS11 KWNS 060223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060222 
TNZ000-060315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1239
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0922 PM CDT Wed Jul 05 2017

Areas affected...Portions of middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 060222Z - 060315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A small complex of strong/severe thunderstorms approaching
Nashville will likely maintain a damaging wind threat over the next
1-2 hours, before weakening later this evening. Watch issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Regional WSR-88D data depict a bowing complex of
thunderstorms progressing east towards Nashville this evening. Ahead
of this line, backed surface winds are modestly enhancing
storm-relative inflow, such that the line is generally maintaining
its vigor. Furthermore, adequate low-level shear (noted from recent
BNA VWP data) has supported the occasional development of
line-embedded vortices, also allowing the line to maintain its
overall organization. In turn, damaging gusts will remain possible
over the next hour or so; thereafter, increasing convective
inhibition should slow parcel ascent sufficiently to weaken the
line. Therefore, watch issuance is not anticipated.

..Picca/Thompson.. 07/06/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...

LAT...LON   35418817 36588769 36628628 36228602 35338631 35148713
            35178806 35418817

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 6, 12:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Blount, Bradley, Campbell, Claiborne, Cocke and 16 more60 min
Jul 6, 3:52 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAnderson, Bedford, Bledsoe, Campbell, Cannon, Clay and 22 more113 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.