Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 1149
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 25, 2017, 5:12 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 25, 2017, 5:12 PM MDT (23:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 25, 2017, 6:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 22 counties
Baca County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Morton County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Chaves County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX
The radar
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 58 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -357 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1692 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 199 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
567 ACUS11 KWNS 252313 SWOMCD SPC MCD 252312 OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260045- Mesoscale Discussion 1149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0612 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017 Areas affected...Southeast CO...Eastern NM...Northwest TX/OK Panhandles Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370... Valid 252312Z - 260045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370 continues. SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible across the entire watch area. Some very large hail (i.e. greater than 2 inches in diameter) and a tornado or two are also possible. Upscale growth into a convective line may eventually occur, enhancing the damaging wind threat. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows numerous severe thunderstorms currently ongoing across eastern NM. Primary threat with these thunderstorms is large hail. Some very large hail (i.e. greater than 2 inches in diameter) is also possible, particularly as a result of storm/boundary interactions. Continued upslope flow regime coupled with dewpoints in the 60s, steep mid-level lapse rates, and moderate/strong bulk shear will favor continued strong/severe thunderstorm development across eastern NM. Primary threat for the next hour or two will remain large hail, although some damaging wind gusts are also possible. Eventually, some cold pool amalgamation/upscale growth is anticipated, with the northwesterly mean flow favoring southeastward propagation into east-central NM and the adjacent west-central portions of the TX panhandle. Northern extent of the eventual convective line will likely be demarcated by the southwestward progressing outflow boundary emanating from the discrete supercell that move through Baca county CO and is currently moving through Cimarron county OK. Very large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible with this supercell as it tracks southward along a remnant outflow boundary. Boundary interactions may also contribute to increased tornado potential with this supercell as well as other storms across the region. ..Mosier.. 06/25/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 32910637 37850409 37840117 32910357 32910637
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2:59 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Baca, Bent, Las Animas, Otero, Prowers | 9 hr |
| Jun 25, 1:08 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bernalillo, Chaves, Colfax, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 9 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.