Alert archive / New Mexico / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 1149

June 25, 20175 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 25, 2017, 5:12 PM MDT for 5 states. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 25, 2017, 5:12 PM MDT (23:12 UTC)
Expired
Jun 25, 2017, 6:45 PM MDT
In force
93 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 22 counties

Baca County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Morton County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Chaves County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Curry County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Mora County, NM, Quay County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Dallam County, TX, Deaf Smith County, TX, Hartley County, TX, Oldham County, TX, Parmer County, TX

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 209 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2017-06-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 58 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2017-06-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 44 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
58 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-357 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1692 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
199 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

567 
ACUS11 KWNS 252313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252312 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Eastern NM...Northwest TX/OK
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370...

Valid 252312Z - 260045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 370
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible across
the entire watch area. Some very large hail (i.e. greater than 2
inches in diameter) and a tornado or two are also possible. Upscale
growth into a convective line may eventually occur, enhancing the
damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows numerous severe
thunderstorms currently ongoing across eastern NM. Primary threat
with these thunderstorms is large hail. Some very large hail (i.e.
greater than 2 inches in diameter) is also possible, particularly as
a result of storm/boundary interactions. Continued upslope flow
regime coupled with dewpoints in the 60s, steep mid-level lapse
rates, and moderate/strong bulk shear will favor continued
strong/severe thunderstorm development across eastern NM. Primary
threat for the next hour or two will remain large hail, although
some damaging wind gusts are also possible. Eventually, some cold
pool amalgamation/upscale growth is anticipated, with the
northwesterly mean flow favoring southeastward propagation into
east-central NM and the adjacent west-central portions of the TX
panhandle. Northern extent of the eventual convective line will
likely be demarcated by the southwestward progressing outflow
boundary emanating from the discrete supercell that move through
Baca county CO and is currently moving through Cimarron county OK.
Very large hail and damaging wind gusts remain possible with this
supercell as it tracks southward along a remnant outflow boundary.
Boundary interactions may also contribute to increased tornado
potential with this supercell as well as other storms across the
region.

..Mosier.. 06/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32910637 37850409 37840117 32910357 32910637

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 25, 2:59 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBaca, Bent, Las Animas, Otero, Prowers9 hr
Jun 25, 1:08 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBernalillo, Chaves, Colfax, De Baca, Eddy, Guadalupe and 9 more3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.