Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 1102

June 20, 201726 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 20, 2017, 3:40 PM CDT for 26 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 20, 2017, 3:40 PM CDT (20:40 UTC)
Expired
Jun 20, 2017, 5:45 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 26 counties

Barton County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Ellsworth County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Lincoln County, KS, Logan County, KS, Ness County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wichita County, KS

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2017-06-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 698 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Dodge City, at 12:00Z on 2017-06-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 171 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
698 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-190 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1238 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
158 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

848 
ACUS11 KWNS 202041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202040 
KSZ000-202245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Areas affected...Parts of western and central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357...

Valid 202040Z - 202245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development accompanied by increasing risk
for severe hail and wind expected across parts of western/central
Kansas through early evening.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous convective development is now well underway,
with storms beginning to increase in number near/west and southwest
of the Hill City area.  In the presence of large CAPE (on the order
of 2000-3000 J/kg), strong vertical shear, and at least weak
lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, considerable further
intensification and upscale convective growth appears possible
through 22-00Z.  

The risk for severe hail will persist in strongest cells, and
locally strong downbursts are expected to become an increasing
threat in the presence of the strongly heated (surface temps in the
mid/upper 90s F) and deeply mixed boundary layer.  Eventually, cold
pool consolidation and strengthening may coincide with the evolution
of an organized mesoscale convective system by this evening, which
should tend to forward propagate eastward/southward, perhaps
accompanied by an increasing areal risk for strong, potentially
damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39790011 39599845 38809794 37529962 37260135 38180141
            39100132 39790011

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 20, 12:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Decatur, Ellis, Ellsworth, Gove, Graham and 16 more2 hr
Jun 20, 1:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarton, Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Edwards, Ellis and 37 more7 hr
Jun 20, 6:18 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarton, Decatur, Ellis, Ellsworth, Finney, Gove and 26 more117 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.