Mesoscale Discussion 1049

Issued

Jun 15, 2017, 8:05 PM CDT (01:05 UTC)

Expired

Jun 15, 2017, 9:00 PM CDT

In force

55 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 50 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

868 
ACUS11 KWNS 160105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160105 
TXZ000-NMZ000-160200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Areas affected...parts of southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...

Valid 160105Z - 160200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 335.

DISCUSSION...Mature storms continue to migrate/propagate
southeastward across portions of west-central Texas currently, with
one supercellular structure noted across Howard County and a linear
segment across Scurry/Fisher counties.  With modest low-level and
strong (2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) just ahead of these storms, a
continued threat for hail (perhaps significant near storms that can
exhibit updraft rotation) and severe wind gusts will continue beyond
dusk.  This may necessitate eastward spatial extensions of WW 335
into portions of the Big Country and Concho Valley.

Farther southwest, higher-based activity has developed in higher
terrain of Texas and also near/just west of Midland/Odessa. 
Although it is a bit late in the diurnal cycle for this activity
(and earlier activity has struggled to maintain intensity), some
potential for severe downburst winds exists given steep lapse rates
throughout the troposphere and 40-50 F surface dewpoint depressions.
 A few hail stones approaching severe limits cannot be ruled out. 
It is a bit uncertain whether this newer activity will persist,
however, and the overall severe threat may begin to trend downward
after dusk owing to nocturnal boundary layer cooling/stabilization.

..Cook.. 06/16/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   31790393 32580305 33020181 33310014 33329971 32929937
            32369924 31339936 30680003 30420162 30270251 30340320
            30690388 31200405 31790393

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.