Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 1
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 1, 2017, 5:44 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 1, 2017, 5:44 PM CST (23:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 1, 2017, 8:15 PM CST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 34 counties
Barbour County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Butler County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Coffee County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dale County, AL, Geneva County, AL, Henry County, AL, Houston County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Pike County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Gadsden County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Baker County, GA, Calhoun County, GA, Clay County, GA, Decatur County, GA, Dougherty County, GA, Early County, GA, Grady County, GA, Miller County, GA, Mitchell County, GA, Quitman County, GA, Randolph County, GA, Seminole County, GA, Terrell County, GA, Greene County, MS
The radar
The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 46 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -96 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 438 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 245 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 300 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
546
ACUS11 KWNS 012345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012344
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-020215-
Mesoscale Discussion 0001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CST Sun Jan 01 2017
Areas affected...Southern AL...southwest GA...and the FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 012344Z - 020215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will persist this evening, with a
brief/weak tornado possible along the warm front. However, overall
storm organization and intensity is not expected to warrant a watch.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms persist in a weak warm advection zone
from LA across southern AL, MS, GA and the FL Panhandle. Storms are
focused mainly along the warm front, which is not moving very fast.
Flow aloft remains southwesterly and without much of an impetus for
large-scale lift, with only minor disturbances in the flow. However,
the air mass south of the front is very moist, and contributing to
sufficient CAPE to support small supercells mainly along the warm
front where low-level SRH is maximized at 200-250 m2/s2. Given only
slow movement of the front, and little else changing aloft this
evening, isolated cells may exhibit rotation whilst crossing the
warm front, with a brief/weak tornado the primary threat.
..Jewell/Hart.. 01/01/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30858607 31148723 30948801 30728838 30908868 31668861
32198718 32178576 31988469 31498401 30858416 30498453
30858607Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.