Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
621 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A dryline is located west of all terminals and in now retreating
slowly to the west early this evening, with all terminals now
VFR. VFR conditions should prevail at all terminals for the
remainder of the evening. A pacific front will push the dryline
back to the east after midnight with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms into the early morning hours. For the terminals,
the best chance for thunderstorms and VCTS should begin around
midnight for the western terminals lasting for a few hours, and
beginning a few hours later for the KJCT and KBBD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Dryline has slowly moved into the western portions of the area this
afternoon, running roughly from a Hamlin to San Angelo to Ozona line
at 3 PM (20Z). Dryline shouldn't move much farther east this
afternoon, and then should begin to retreat back west this evening.
Convection has developed along the triple point across the Southern
Plains east of Lubbock, where strong instability and good shear has
led to the issuance of a Tornado Watch that includes the Northern
Big Country of Haskell and Throckmorton. Brunt of the convection
will likely remain near the triple point and outflow boundary across
the Red River, but better convergence along the dryline and a speed
max moving into the area should lead to a few storms down the
dryline this afternoon and evening, perhaps as far south as Haskell
and Throckmorton.

Farther south...additional convection has developed across Val Verde
County, with satellite showing decent cu developing up the dryline
to near San Angelo and Abilene. This area is largely being bypassed
by the speed max to the north at the moment, and is mainly dependent
on the dryline itself to initiate convection. Isolated to scattered
storms possible along the dryline this afternoon and evening, but
does not appear to be terribly widespread. All this changes later
this evening, when the approaching cold front overtakes the dryline.
Low level jet cranks up as well and the latest HRRR and TTU WRF both
show a large area of convection developing across the western
portions of the Concho valley and Edwards Plateau late this evening.
Right rear quad of the jet becomes a factor, and with good elevated
instability, convection should become more widespread. Have increased
PoPs a little for tonight mainly west of an Abilene to San Angelo to
Ozona line. Convective coverage should be maximized during the
overnight hours, and start to wane a little into the first half of
the day on Thursday as the storms move into the Northwest Hill
Country.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Saturday Night)

A quiet weather pattern is expected late this week into the first
part of the weekend as weak surface high pressure along with a low
level dry airmass is centered over much of Texas. Highs will be in
the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday and 80s on Saturday. Lows will be
in the 50s.

=LONG TERM
(Sunday through Wednesday)

A more active and unsettled weather pattern is in store across the
Southern Plains early to middle of next week. Looking at a more
typical May pattern with an upper level trough across the western
US, sending disturbances northeast in the southwest flow aloft. At
the surface a dryline will be located just to our west, and will
probably move east into our area during the afternoon hours. As a
result going with slight chance to chance Pops through much of this
period. The combination of moderate instability and good effective
deep layer shear will probably result in at least a few storms
becoming severe, especially Wednesday. However, talking about
details(like mesoscale) is still to far out, but West Central Texas
is now in the peak of severe weather season.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 60  88  56  79 /  40  10   5   0
San Angelo 	 61  89  58  81 /  50  10   5   0
Junction 	 64  87  57  82 /  50  30  10   0
Brownwood 	 62  87  58  79 /  50  20  10   0
Sweetwater 	 58  87  55  77 /  30   5   5   0
Ozona      	 59  87  57  81 /  50  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
601 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-111115-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
601 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the area today and
especially tonight as a potent upper level storm system affects
the region. While a strong storm or two is possible today, a
better chance for more organized severe storms is possible with
the overnight activity. The main hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds, although a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms will be possible across southeast portions of the
forecast area Thursday morning. A strong storm or two is possible,
with hail and gusty winds the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be necessary tonight.

24

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
759 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

TXZ054-065-066-113-127-110200-
Runnels TX-Nolan TX-Coke TX-Jones TX-Taylor TX-
759 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COKE...SOUTHWESTERN
JONES...SOUTHEASTERN NOLAN...TAYLOR AND NORTHWESTERN RUNNELS COUNTIES
UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 758 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Happy Valley, or 13 miles northeast of Blackwell, moving northeast at
30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Abilene, Winters, Robert Lee, Blackwell, Nolan, Merkel, Tye, Bronte,
Tuscola, Hawley, Buffalo Gap, Trent, Noodle, Bradshaw, Dyess AFB,
View, Wingate, Happy Valley and Potosi.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 261 and 291.

LAT...LON 3251 9963 3209 9978 3178 10034 3187 10054
      3272 10001
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 218DEG 26KT 3218 10012

sn

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