Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
629 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions to dominate most of West Central Texas for
the next 24 hours. A cold front will stall along or just south of
our Interstate 10 corridor tonight. Stratus will then develop
near sunrise, across mainly our southern counties. Plus, showers
and thunderstorms are possible, mainly along and near this front.
By tomorrow afternoon, expect VFR conditions across all of West
Central Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cold front is moving south through the forecast area. Currently it
extends from San Saba county through northwest Menard County to
northwest Crockett County. Isolated to scattered rain showers with
very isolated heavy showers were mostly in southern Tom Green
County along and within 50 miles north of the front.

The cold front will slow down as it moves southeast through the
forecast area and there is a chance for heavy rain in San Saba,
Mason and Kimble counties this evening and overnight...a Flash Flood
Watch is currently posted for those counties until 7AM CDT Tuesday.
A few storms could reach severe levels over southeastern counties
later today, therefore the Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for San Saba, McCullough, Menard, Mason,
Schleicher, Sutton and Kimble Counties until 11PM CDT tonight.

Expect cooler temperatures on Tuesday with lows near 50 degrees in
the Big Country to near 60 from Ozona to Junction. High temperatures
on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 70s with some cloudiness
lingering. Chances for rain of 30 to 50 percent continues through
mid-Tuesday across southern and especially southeastern most
counties. Rain chances are 20 percent or less from San Angelo
northward.

22

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)

Quieter weather is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as weak
upper level ridging develops across West Central Texas ahead of the
next approaching upper level shortwave trough. Overnight lows will
mainly be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees, with high temperatures
on Wednesday near seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 70s.

The next upper level shortwave trough will track across the South
Plains/Texas Panhandle Wednesday night into Thursday. At this point,
the best chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be across our
western and northern counties, closest to the track of the
aforementioned shortwave trough. Current rain chances range from
likely across our northwest counties, to slight chance across our
southeast counties. Highs on Thursday will be near seasonal normals,
in the mid to upper 70s. Drier conditions are anticipated Friday and
Saturday as weak upper level ridging develops across the forecast
area.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be late next
weekend into the first part of next week as the next upper level
storm system approaches from the west. For now, PoPs were kept in
the slight chance/chance category given the uncertainty this far
out.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 53  74  58  77 /  20  10  10  20
San Angelo 	 57  74  59  79 /  20  20  20  20
Junction 	 60  74  60  78 /  60  40  10  20
Brownwood 	 57  73  58  77 /  40  20  10  20
Sweetwater 	 52  72  58  76 /  10  10  10  20
Ozona      	 58  73  60  75 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Kimble-Mason-San
Saba.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
259 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-112000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
259 PM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight. Some of
the storms may become severe this afternoon and evening, mainly
south and east of a Brownwood to Eldorado to Sonora line. The main
hazards will be dangerous lightning, large hail, and damaging
winds. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may caused localized
flooding, especially in urban areas and poor drainage places.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible west of a line from
Rotan to Mertzon to Ozona Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
357 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

TXZ140-154-155-102130-
McCulloch TX-Brown TX-San Saba TX-
357 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCCULLOCH AND
NORTHWESTERN SAN SABA COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 356 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Placid, or 10 miles west of Richland Springs, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Elm Grove around 410 PM CDT.
  Richland Springs and Skeeterville around 420 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include The Intersection Of
Ranch Road 765 And Ranch Road 45, Milburn, Locker, Spring Creek, Us-
190 Near The McCulloch-San Saba County Line, Hall and Indian Creek.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3126 9862 3119 9920 3143 9923 3157 9885
      3148 9899 3144 9896 3146 9894 3143 9893
      3144 9887 3141 9885 3141 9878 3138 9878
      3143 9873 3141 9869 3134 9870 3137 9866
      3132 9864 3132 9859
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 259DEG 21KT 3133 9912

Daniels

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
617 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

TXZ154-170-110000-
Mason TX-McCulloch TX-
617 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCCULLOCH AND
NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 617 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Katemcy, or 11 miles northwest of Mason, moving east at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Katemcy around 700 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include The Intersection Of
Highway 29 And Ranch Road 1222, Us-377/us 87 Near The Mason-
McCulloch County Line and The Intersection Of US-
377 And Ranch Road 1222.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3082 9939 3092 9941 3105 9912 3089 9909
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 259DEG 5KT 3088 9935

mkd

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
637 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

TXZ170-110030-
Mason TX-
637 PM CDT MON APR 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MASON COUNTY UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

At 637 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mason, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pontotoc around 730 PM CDT.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3073 9925 3081 9924 3092 9906 3092 9897
      3082 9897
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 236DEG 14KT 3080 9918

04