Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
639 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

The main aviation forecast concern is with thunderstorms this
evening and early tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the Big Country and Concho Valley areas will continue
to move/develop to the south-southeast through this evening and
into early tonight. Most of the convection should dissipate by or
shortly after Midnight. The main efects should be at the KABI,
KSJT and KBBD terminals. Temporary reductions in ceilings and
visibilities are expected in locally heavy rain accompanying the
convection, and localized wind gusts over 35 knots are possible.
Following dissipation of the showers/thunderstorms, gradually
clearing skies and VFR conditions are expected overnight into
Sunday. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible by
Sunday afternoon along/south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line,
but low confidence in placement precludes a mention in our TAFs
at this time. Outside of convective activity, wind speeds will
be mostly less than 10 knots.

19

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 324 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

Scattered showers and storms developing across the Big Country as
expected this afternoon, as a potent shortwave dives south across
the South Plains. High resolution models like the TTU WRF and the
HRRR allow this convection to blossom and sag south this evening
into the Concho Valley and Heartland as well. Increased rain chances
for this evening across much of the area. Upper level support fades
across the area for Sunday, but afternoon heating and adequate low
level moisture will remain. Will keep the isolated storms in the
forecast for Sunday, roughly along and south of a Brownwood to San
Angelo line. As for temperatures, temperatures have returned to
seasonal normals after a few days of relatively cool readings.

07

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday)

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday evening, mainly for areas south of Interstate 20. Overnight
lows will be close to seasonal normals, in the mid to upper 60s.
Highs on Monday will remain near normal, in the low to mid 90s, with
south winds of 5 to 10 mph.

A large upper level trough is forecast to swing across the northern
Plains late Monday, then toward the Great Lakes Tuesday. This will
send a cold front into the northern Big Country Tuesday afternoon,
then through the rest of the area Tuesday evening. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and just
behind the front, with rain chances decreasing from north to south
late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Cooler temperatures are
anticipated behind the front along with gusty north winds. Highs
Wednesday and Thursday will mainly be in the 80s, with overnight
lows in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees. A slow warm up is then
forecast for the end of the week.

Daniels

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  91  69  93 /  40  10  10   5
San Angelo 	 68  93  67  93 /  50  20  20   5
Junction 	 68  91  66  92 /  20  20  20   5
Brownwood 	 69  90  68  91 /  50  20  20   5
Sweetwater 	 68  91  69  91 /  30   5   5   5
Ozona      	 67  91  66  90 /  20  20  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
230 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-031930-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
230 PM CDT Sat Sep 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will develop across the Big Country this
afternoon and spread south towards The Concho Valley and Heartland
during the evening hours. A few of the storms may become strong
and approach severe levels, with gusty winds the main threat.
Dangerous lightning and brief heavy rainfall will also be
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday across an
area mainly south of a Brownwood to San Angelo line. GUsty winds
will again be the main threat. In addition, a cold front will move
across West Central Texas on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with
thunderstorms possible with the passage of the front. Gusty winds
and Dangerous lightning will be the main concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be briefly requested this afternoon and
evening across portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley, and Big
Country.

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