Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
635 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for challenging flight weather to develop during the next 12
hours. Thunderstorms, in advance of an approaching cold front,
will continue to spread south, from the north, tonight. The cold
front will likely be near or just south of the Interstate 20
corridor, in the Big Country, by midnight. Then, expect MVFR
ceilings to develop after midnight, across all of West Central
Texas.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Another hot day across West Central Texas, with both the upper level
ridge in place as well as the low level thermal ridge. Temperatures
currently 103 to 109 across the southern 2/3 of West Central Texas,
with San Angelo hitting 109 and breaking the previous record by 3
degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across much of this area
until 8 PM. Also, isolated storms have developed close to a cold
front across the South Plains, just northwest of the Big Country.
Looks like best chance for scattered thunderstorms will be across
the Big Country this evening, possibly as far south to along a San
Angelo to Brownwood line, according to Hi-Res models. A few strong
to marginal severe storms are possible, with the main hazards of
wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, small hail and dangerous lightning.
Going with the highest Pops across the Big Country(likely) and
chance Pops further south. The cold front will move south across the
area tonight, and be located just north of the I-10 corridor by
Saturday morning. Lows will range from the mid to upper 60s across
the Big Country to lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

For Saturday, expect much cooler temperatures with highs mainly in
the 80s. Also, the combination of weak instability and abundant low
level moisture will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The main hazards will be dangerous lightning and gusty winds.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

Cooler Saturday night into Monday with weak surface high pressure
over the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected with
northwest flow aloft and upslope easterly surface winds. Severe
storms are not expected with GFS SBCAPES around 1500 J/KG Sunday
and Monday, though a strong thunderstorm or two possible.

Upper ridging builds in Tuesday with surface winds shifting the
south. Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday, but dry and
warming conditions will continue Wednesday into Friday as upper
ridging redevelops. A cold front may approach the region late
Friday night and bring a thunderstorm or two in the Big Country,
but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  79  67  80 /  60  40  50  50
San Angelo 	 73  85  69  82 /  40  30  50  50
Junction 	 75  89  70  85 /  30  30  30  50
Brownwood 	 72  81  68  81 /  50  40  30  50
Sweetwater 	 67  77  66  78 /  60  30  50  50
Ozona      	 74  88  70  85 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Coke-Concho-
Crockett-Irion-Kimble-McCulloch-Menard-Runnels-Schleicher-
Sterling-Sutton-Tom Green.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
253 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-242000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
253 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Very hot temperatures will again be likely across West Central
Texas this afternoon, with the hottest readings south of a San
Angelo to Brady line. A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon.

A cold front will push into the area late this afternoon and
tonight, with thunderstorms becoming more widespread. The most
likely area to see storms will be along and north of I-20 from
Sweetwater to Abilene. A few of these storms may become strong
and perhaps approach severe levels. Small hail, gusty winds, and
dangerous lightning will be likely with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Thunderstorm chances will continue across West Central Texas
through the weekend and into early next week. Again, dangerous
lightning and perhaps some small hail will be possible with the
stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be briefly requested this evening.

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