Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
722 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Increased shower and thunderstorm chances to likely for complex
of storms moving southeast into the Country. HRRR has the storms complex
continuing move southeast into the Big Country and northern Concho
Valley...and as far east as Brown and San Saba Counties. Some
could be severe...with large hail and damaging winds the main
threats.

04

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions continue across West Central Texas early this
evening, but complex of storms across the South Plains should move
southeast and approach the area later this evening. Latest hi-res
models suggest that KABI (Abilene) will be the most likely one to
see any of these storms and will continue the VCTS for now. May
need to update once storm trajectory becomes more certain.
Otherwise, will leave storms out for now. MVFR cigs will return by
morning and will largely us the timing from this morning as a
start and stop point on the low clouds.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

As of mid afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms have developed
across the dryline in Lubbok's CWA as indicated by many of the short
range models this morning. These storms are expected to continue to
develop towards the southeast and be located near the Big Country by
early evening. Additional storms may develop near Midland later this
afternoon in a manner similar to yesterday and could reach the
western border of our CWA later this evening. MLCAPE values near
3700-4200 j/kg coupled with 30-40 kts of 0-6 km shear will allow for
the possibility of some of these storms to become severe. If the
stronger cells hold together and move into our CWA, the primary
hazards will be large hail and damaging winds. The storms will
likely dissipate by midnight, leaving the best rain chances along
the western border of the CWA and the Big Country.

For tomorrow, rain chances will have diminished overnight. The heat
will once again return to West Central Texas bringing high
temperatures into the upper 90s to 104. Low temperatures tonight
are expected to drop into the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

An upper level ridge will centered across northern Mexico or the
Southwest U.S. through the extended forecast, with its influence
extending into the western half of Texas. Well above normal
temperatures are forecast both Saturday and Sunday. High
temperatures on Saturday will mainly be in the 100 to 105 range. A
heat advisory may eventually be needed, as several locations may
reach or exceed 103 degrees.

An upper level trough will swing across the Plains Sunday, sending a
cold front into the Big Country Sunday afternoon. High temperatures
on Sunday will be dependent on the eventual strength and speed of
this cold front. Ahead of the front, compressional heating will
result in triple digit temperatures, while temperatures in the 80s
will be possible behind the front. For now, only minor changes were
made to temperatures, but these temperatures may need to be trended
down, especially across the northern half of the forecast area.
Slightly cooler temperature are forecast on Monday behind the front,
with highs mainly in low to mid 90s.

Upper level ridging will build back into West Central Texas for the
middle to latter part of the work week. This will result in mainly
dry conditions and temperatures above seasonal normals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 75 101  76 102 /  60  10   0   5
San Angelo 	 75 102  75 104 /  20  10   0   5
Junction 	 73  98  73 100 /   0   5   0   0
Brownwood 	 74  98  73 100 /  30  10   0   0
Sweetwater 	 74 101  75 102 /  70  10   0   5
Ozona      	 73  99  74 101 /  20  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/04

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