Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
659 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

A loosely organized band of thunderstorms has entered the
northwestern Concho Valley and western Big Country. This
band of thunderstorms will move slowly east across the Big
Country, reaching KABI 03Z-04Z. Reductions in ceiling and
visibility could occur at KABI in the locally heavy rain
accompanying the convection. Other showers and storms
developing across parts of West Texas should move east into
the Concho Valley and Crockett County later this evening.
In addition, an outflow boundary will continue moving south-
southwest across the Concho Valley and into the Northwest
Hill Country. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop
along and behind this boundary. Carrying VCTS at KSJT
0015Z to 03Z. Low cloud cover will develop late tonight
into Saturday morning across the southern and central parts
of our area. Carrying MVFR ceilings at our TAF sites.
Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected during
the day Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 250 PM CDT Fri Jun 2 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Heavy rainfall continues across much of the Big Country, with flash
flooding occurring across portions of the area. Additional shower
and thunderstorm activity will continue, with other storms
developing across Heartland. Synoptically, an upper level
low/trough is centered over New Mexico. High resolution models are
indicating a disturbance tracking across the region late this
afternoon into this evening, resulting in additional shower and
thunderstorm development. This activity is then forecast to track
east across the region overnight. The main concern will continue
to be locally heavy rainfall which may result in flash flooding.
Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the mid to upper 60s.

Rain chances will continue into Saturday as the aforementioned upper
level low/trough approaches the forecast area. Additional showers
and thunderstorms will be possible, and PoPs were mainly kept in the
50-60 percent range. The expected cloud cover/rainfall will help to
keep high temperatures below seasonal normals, in the low to mid
80s.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The previously mentioned upper level low/trough will move across
West Central Texas Saturday night into Sunday, with rain chances
continuing. Again, the main concern will be locally heavy rainfall,
possibly resulting in flash flooding. Rain chances will decrease
from west to east Monday into Tuesday as the upper level trough axis
moves west of the region, although PoPs will linger across the
eastern counties. Below normal temperatures will continue Sunday and
Monday, with highs in the low to mid 80s.

For the middle to latter part of the work week, an upper level ridge
will develop across the Desert Southwest, putting West Central Texas
in north flow aloft. This may open the door for convection that
develops to our north to move south into our area. For now, PoPs
were kept in the slight chance category, given the uncertainty this
far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 66  82  65  82 /  50  60  60  50
San Angelo 	 66  83  64  83 /  50  60  60  60
Junction 	 67  85  65  83 /  40  40  60  70
Brownwood 	 66  83  65  83 /  50  60  60  50
Sweetwater 	 64  80  64  80 /  50  60  60  50
Ozona      	 65  83  63  82 /  50  60  60  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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