Red Flag Warning 4, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1102 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Stratus will move into the southern 3 sites around 07z, then
approach KABI and KSJT between 09z and 12z. The stratus will
result in MVFR/IFR ceilings, with VFR conditions returning to all
sites by late morning or early afternoon. Patchy fog may also
result in reduced visibilities, especially at the southern 3
sites. Light south winds overnight will become southwest at 10 to
15 knots by late morning, decreasing around 00z Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Stratus development is expected at the southern 3 sites around
07z, spreading to KSJT and KABI between 10z and 13z. The stratus
will result in MVFR ceilings at KSJT and KBBD, with IFR/LIFR
ceilings at the southern 3 sites. In addition, patchy fog may
result in reduced visibilities, especially at the southern sites.
VFR conditions will return to all sites by late morning. Light
south winds overnight will become southwest and increase to 10 to
15 knots by late morning Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A dryline was located near an Abilene to Menard to Junction line
this afternoon. The dewpoints have fallen into the 30s and 40s to
west of the dryline, and remain in the 50s across the remainder of
the area. For tonight, the dryline will retreat back to the west, to
just west of our area by Tuesday morning due to surface pressure
falls, ahead of a strong upper level trough over the Southern
Rockies. As a result, low level moisture/stratus will advect back
north across much of the area by late tonight and Tuesday morning.

For Tuesday, the dryline will move back east across much the area,
and be located across the Northwest Hill Country by Tuesday
afternoon. Fire weather concerns will increase Tuesday afternoon,
behind the dryline(see fire weather discussion below). Expect
another warm day, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Fire Weather...
Critical fire weather conditions are possible across much of the Big
Country...western 2/3 of the Concho Valley and Crockett County for
late Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon due to southwest of 15 to
25 mph with gusts to 35 mph and minimum relative humidities of 10 to
15 percent. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect.

21

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)

The upper level trough will move east across the central and
southern Plains Tuesday night. A Pacific cold front will push east
across our area early Tuesday night, overtaking a partially
retreating dryline. A secondary cold front will advance south of the
Red River and into our northern counties toward morning. This front
will move quickly south across the remainder of west central Texas
Wednesday morning. Gusty north winds will follow passage of this
cold front, with winds decreasing during the afternoon as a surface
high drops quickly southeast into the Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma. Elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday are expected
to be mitigated to some extent, as wind speeds decrease by the time
relative humidity values drop to/below 20 percent. Temperatures will
also be considerably cooler on Wednesday, with highs forecast to
be in the lower to mid 60s.

Dry and cooler conditions will continue for our area through Friday.
Afternoon highs are expected to be mostly in the mid 60s, which is
near to slightly below normal for the beginning of March. Overnight
lows Wednesday and Thursday nights are expected to be in the mid to
upper 30s. A few colder readings are possible in low-lying areas,
but anticipate that most locations will have lows above the
freezing mark.

Return flow will develop by Friday night and continue into the
weekend. This setup will result in warmer temperatures, along
with a considerable increase in low-level moisture. Low rain
chances remain in the forecast for the southeastern part of our
area Saturday through Sunday, generally southeast of a Junction to
Brownwood line. A shortwave trough is progged to move east across
parts of Mexico, with lift over central and southern Texas ahead
of this feature. Looks like the better rain chances will be south
and southeast of our area. Included a possibility of thunderstorms
where we have slight chance PoPs next Sunday, given the forecast
destabilization of the airmass. A cold frontal passage is possible
on Day 7 (next Monday) or just beyond, but the GFS and ECMWF
differ on the timing and with associated rain chances.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 55  84  45  61 /   0   5   5   0
San Angelo 	 54  87  47  64 /   0   0   5   0
Junction 	 57  85  52  65 /   5   5  10   5
Brownwood 	 55  84  47  62 /  10  10  10   5
Sweetwater 	 54  84  44  60 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona      	 52  84  48  65 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon for Coke-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Nolan-
Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

Daniels

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
227 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-282030-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
227 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon
across the much of The Big Country...western 2/3 of the Concho
Valley and Crockett County due to gusty southwest winds and very
dry conditions. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for this part
of West Central Texas. Any fires that develop will likely spread
rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.