Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
623 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect VFR conditions for most terminals through Saturday
afternoon. Gusty southerly winds between 15-20KT will be possible
across all terminals Saturday. Low clouds will affect KJCT
terminal around 06Z bringing MVFR ceilings through the morning
and early afternoon. Expect VFR conditions to return by 17Z for
the KJCT terminal.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

On satellite imagery this afternoon, a MCV (Mesoscale Convective
Vortex) is over the southeastern part of the DFW area, moving south-
southeast. A smaller MCV is over our southeastern counties, and also
tracking south-southeast. A couple of the CAMs indicate isolated to
scattered convection affecting the southeastern part of our area
late this afternoon and evening. Radar is bearing this out as well,
with isolated showers developing east of a Coleman to Mason line.
We are carrying 30 PoPs across the southeastern part of our area
late this afternoon through late this evening. Moderate to strong
instability and steep low-level lapse rates support the potential
for a few strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds the
primary threat.

Skies will be generally clear behind the exiting MCV and late
evening convection. Development of a low-level jet will keep the
wind speeds higher across our northern and central counties. With
lee surface trough to our west and increased pressure gradient
across our area, gusty south winds are expected on Saturday, with
winds backing a bit to south-southeast by early evening. For
temperatures, little change is expected with lows tonight and highs
Saturday above normal.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Thursday)

Weak upper level low near Houston will continue into Sunday and
Monday, leaving weak upper level ridging in place across West
Central Texas. Stronger southwest flow aloft will prevail across
portions of Far West Texas into the Panhandle. Surface dryline
will become better established from the Permian Basin north into
the Panhandle, with a few isolated showers and storms possible
both Sunday and Monday afternoons. However, appear there will be
enough cap with the weak ridge to keep any of these storms from
moving into the area. Gonna be hot as well, with low level thermal
ridge allowing highs to creep back up towards the 100 degree mark.

Pattern starts to change for mid week as the upper level ridge
begins to flatten out. It doesn't go very far away, but maybe far
enough that a few storms will be possible across the northern Big
Country by Wednesday afternoon and evening. We start to see more
of a northwest or northerly flow by late week, setting up the
chance for a little better chance for convection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 71  94  70  94 /  10   5   0   0
San Angelo 	 71  97  71  96 /  10   5   0   0
Junction 	 70  92  69  92 /  20   0   0   0
Brownwood 	 69  91  68  92 /  30   5   0   0
Sweetwater 	 71  95  70  95 /  10   5   0   5
Ozona      	 69  94  69  93 /  10   0   0   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/99/40

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
252 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-102000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
252 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon and evening across the area southeast of a Brownwood
to Junction line. The weather threats include damaging winds
in addition to dangerous lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
416 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2017

TXZ170-092200-
Mason TX-
416 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MASON COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Loyal Valley, or 9 miles southeast of Mason,
moving southeast at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mason, Pontotoc, Loyal Valley, Fredonia, Katemcy, Streeter, US-377
near The Mason-McCulloch County Line, US-87 Near The Mason-Gillespie
County Line.

LAT...LON 3094 9948 3094 9910 3092 9909 3092 9897
      3050 9896 3050 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 330DEG 6KT 3064 9914

sn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
519 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2017

TXZ170-092315-
Mason TX-
519 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MASON COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 518 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Mason, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mason, Loyal Valley, Katemcy, Streeter, US-377 near The
Mason-McCulloch County Line, US-87 Near The Mason-Gillespie County
Line.

LAT...LON 3050 9948 3094 9948 3094 9912 3058 9896
      3050 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 329DEG 8KT 3059 9925

sn