Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
327 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front currently along a line from Rusk, Texas, to El Dorado,
Arkansas. Widespread precipitation observed on radar both ahead of
the front and post-frontal. Temperatures across the region ranging
from the mid 40s in McCurtain county to the mid 60s across deep
east Texas.

Front to push south across the region today with a chance for
light post-frontal rainfall through Wednesday night, mainly south
of interstate 20. Temperatures this afternoon to climb into the
mid 50s behind the front and the mid 60s across central Louisiana.
North winds will increase to around 15 mph across most locations
today and possibly 15 to 20 mph across portions of east Texas.
Thus a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for today across portions
of east Texas.

Pressure gradient to relax overnight as high pressure settles
across the region. Winds to diminish to around 5 to 10 mph with
temperatures forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s.

Dry conditions to prevail from late week through the end of the
forecast period with the main impacts being temperatures.
Widespread light freeze conditions can be expected during the
overnight hours from Friday morning through Sunday morning with
high temperatures each day climbing into the 50s.

Otherwise high pressure to shift south late in the weekend with
west winds bringing a gradual warming trend with highs in the 60s
and lows in the 40s. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1202 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 05/06Z TAF period, mostly MVFR conditions starting out the
period with low stratus covering much of the area along and ahead
of a cold front along the I-30 corridor as of this TAF issuance.
This front will continue to bring a line of convection along with
it in additional to some pre-frontal showers with the threat of
thunderstorms remaining fairly low due to a lack of instability.
For now, have left in mention of VCTS and will amend as necessary
for on-station thunderstorms. Cigs will likely deteriorate a bit
more, possibly to IFR status intermittently at some TAF locations
but improvement should come behind the front on Tuesday during the
daytime hours and especially by afternoon with low VFR conditions
likely returning. Breezy south winds around 10 kts will prevail
ahead of the front, then veering quickly north northwest as the
front passes with speeds increasing slightly to between 10-15 kts
with higher gusts during the day on Tuesday.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  57  40  54  39 /  70  20  30  20
MLU  61  40  54  38 /  90  20  30  20
DEQ  55  35  57  31 /  20   0  10  10
TXK  55  38  55  35 /  30  10  10  10
ELD  55  37  55  34 /  70  10  20  10
TYR  57  40  54  39 /  40  20  40  20
GGG  57  39  54  37 /  60  20  40  20
LFK  59  41  51  39 /  70  30  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this
     afternoon for TXZ108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

&&

05/19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
545 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-061145-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
545 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually diminish during
the day as high pressure rebuilds across the region. Windy
conditions are expected across portions of east Texas. Boaters
should exercise caution on area lakes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

No hazardous weather weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters should not be needed this afternoon
or tonight.

05

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
533 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2017

LAZ018-020-051215-
Natchitoches LA-Grant LA-
533 AM CST TUE DEC 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN GRANT AND
SOUTHEASTERN NATCHITOCHES PARISHES UNTIL 615 AM CST...

At 533 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Flatwoods, or 8 miles west of Lena, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colfax, Chopin, Cloutierville, Aloha and Gorum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3136 9301 3159 9303 3160 9254 3141 9254
      3139 9265 3141 9267 3140 9269 3141 9270
      3142 9268 3143 9269 3145 9268 3145 9271
      3147 9271 3147 9269 3152 9272 3142 9285
      3142 9287 3139 9289 3139 9291 3137 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 1133Z 257DEG 16KT 3148 9292

05