Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
701 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.AVIATION...
Sky conditions outside of convection has been mostly low vfr cigs,
except for portions of east TX, including KLFK, where steady
drizzly rain has produced low mvfr to ocnl ifr conditions. Isold
tstm movg north of KGGG and tstms just west and north of KTXK
attm. Line of stg to svr tstms west of cwa, and will slowly move
east across area overnight. Following passage of storms and
dryline, w-sw winds around 10 kts to increase to 15 to 20 kts in
aftn as vfr stratocu decks, possibly containing lgt rain at times,
becmg skc./07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 517 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Updated the forecast to include the tornado watch number 175 for
parts of Northeast Texas. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 436 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave disturbance lifting across
north central Louisiana this afternoon, producing a cluster of
thunderstorms that is relatively slow moving. These thunderstorms
are putting down heavy rain, hail, and strong and gusty winds.
This is all elevated instability, as the cap that was on the 12z
sounding is still apparent on the special 20z sounding. At this
point in time, SPC is not anticipating issuing a warning for this
disturbance, but that could change.

Meanwhile, the cold front continues to push across Texas this
afternoon, and is to the Metroplex area at this time. Discrete
thunderstorms are developing out ahead of the cold front. A line
will eventually form and move across the region later this evening
and during the overnight hours. In the meantime, believe we could
see a watch for the discrete storms out ahead of the front in East
Texas later this afternoon or evening. Our entire region remains
under an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight.
The primary threats will continue to be large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornados.

This cold front will move through our area tonight, and quickly
exit during the day on Sunday. Temperatures tomorrow will likely
be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than those of today, as much cooler and
drier air filters in the region. Temperatures will warm back up
for the first part of the work week though, as southerly flow
returns to the region.

Another cold front and associated upper level low will approach
the region for Wednesday and Thursday, bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms to the region. At this point in time,
Wednesday looks like it will be the wetter day, but models are
hinting at the potential for wrap around showers continuing
through the day on Thursday, especially for our northern areas.
Daytime temperatures will likely fall into the back into the lower
70s by Thursday, with just a minor warming trend developing for
Friday and Saturday.  Palmer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  70  50  80 / 100  40   0   0
MLU  67  74  51  79 / 100 100  10   0
DEQ  56  66  42  75 / 100  20  10   0
TXK  58  67  47  75 / 100  30   0   0
ELD  62  71  47  77 / 100  70  10   0
TYR  54  68  47  79 / 100  20   0   0
GGG  57  67  47  79 / 100  20   0   0
LFK  60  71  48  83 / 100  30   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for ARZ070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
451 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-OKZ077-301200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-McCurtain-
451 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across southern
Arkansas this afternoon, with additional thunderstorms moving into
the southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas this evening, ahead
of a slow moving cold front. Therefore, there could be a period
of slow moving thunderstorms containing heavy rain that may cause
flash flooding across the area this evening, before these storms
consolidate into a line of strong to severe thunderstorms and
quickly advance east by tonight. Widespread rainfall amounts of
two to four inches, with isolated higher amounts in excess of five
inches, will be possible this afternoon through tonight. In
addition to the heavy rain and flash flood threat, damaging winds,
isolated tornadoes, and large hail will be possible this evening,
with these threats diminishing from west to east late.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase once again Wednesday ahead
of a cold front and associated upper level disturbance. However,
the threat for severe thunderstorms appear low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, will be needed late this afternoon through
tonight.

ARZ070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167-301200-
Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-
Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-
Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-
Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-
Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
451 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to lift across
northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas this afternoon. These
storms are capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and
brief isolated tornadoes. Meanwhile...discrete thunderstorms are
developing in central and northeast Texas this afternoon, ahead
of a slow moving cold front. These storms will intensify as they
shift east across the region tonight. Some of these storms may
become severe, with damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, large
hail, and locally heavy rainfall possible. The severe weather
threat will gradually diminish from west to east across East Texas
late tonight as these storms move into Southwest Arkansas and
North Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...
Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will be exiting the
eastern sections of north central Louisiana around daybreak
Sunday with the passage of a cold front. The threat for heavy
rainfall will persist through mid morning though, before rain
rates taper as drier air spills eastward. Look for the showers and
embedded thunderstorms to diminish from west to east through mid
afternoon Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms will increase once again Wednesday
ahead of a cold front and associated upper level disturbance.
Depending on the extent of surface heating and resultant
instability, there is a potential for at least isolated severe
thunderstorms across the region Wednesday, before cooler and drier
air filters southeast behind the cold frontal passage Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, will be needed tonight.

Palmer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
553 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ073-292315-
Union AR-
553 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 553 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Norphlet, moving north at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado, Smackover, Norphlet, Calion, Lisbon, Cairo and Kenova.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 9259 3324 9295 3337 9293 3337 9279
      3339 9276 3338 9273 3336 9268 3337 9265
      3336 9260 3337 9259 3337 9255 3333 9252
      3332 9252 3333 9250 3332 9249 3333 9248
      3330 9246 3329 9247 3328 9245
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 202DEG 49KT 3331 9273

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW OAKHAVEN          33.69N 93.64W
04/29/2017                   HEMPSTEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND HOPE
            ARKANSAS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
640 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MANY                    31.57N 93.47W
04/29/2017                   SABINE             LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
655 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROBELINE                31.69N 93.30W
04/29/2017                   NATCHITOCHES       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. TREE ON A MOBILE
            HOME.

&&

AS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
715 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

ARZ050-051-059-060-300115-
Howard AR-Hempstead AR-Sevier AR-Little River AR-
715 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LITTLE RIVER...
NORTHWESTERN HEMPSTEAD...SEVIER AND HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM
CDT...

At 715 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Foreman to Saratoga. Movement was northeast at
35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
De Queen, Ashdown, Nashville, Mineral Springs, Dierks, Horatio,
Foreman, Umpire, Lockesburg, Wilton, Tollette, Winthrop, Gillham, Ben
Lomond, Corinth, Arkinda, Center Point, Saratoga, Athens and Oak
Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 3435 9394 3427 9394 3426 9392 3419 9392
      3418 9382 3401 9382 3401 9375 3399 9371
      3369 9386 3367 9448 3382 9448 3419 9434
      3419 9424 3435 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 217DEG 75KT 3373 9441 3375 9390

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
717 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

TXZ111-112-125-126-138-300115-
Upshur TX-Harrison TX-Cass TX-Marion TX-Morris TX-
717 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CASS...WESTERN
MARION...NORTHWESTERN HARRISON...NORTHEASTERN UPSHUR AND SOUTHEASTERN
MORRIS COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 717 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cedar Springs, or 14 miles northeast of Gilmer, moving north at 40
mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ore City, Diana, Cedar Springs and Avinger.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for northeastern
Texas.

LAT...LON 3268 9477 3286 9482 3296 9456 3269 9448
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 177DEG 46KT 3283 9472

07