Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
231 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
...Very heavy rainfall likely for this weekend across Arkansas
and Southeast Oklahoma...

Cold front accompanied by a line of severe TSTMS to continue
pushing E through Thursday morning. This front to push into MS and
SE TX by during Thursday with negative vorticity advection and
cold air advection clearing skies and rainfall from NW to SE
through late tonight behind the cold front.

For Thursday, expect quiet weather with a stable and dry airmass
behind the front. By Friday, another trough develops and deepens
over the four corners of the desert SW with a deep tropical
moisture fetch advecting N from the southern Gulf of Mexico into
the central U.S.

During this weekend, the trough slowly ejects E into the OK and
KS. All forecasts models show very heavy rainfall developing in AR
during much of this weekend. Accordingly, expect the flooding
threat to increase across the N half of the ArkLaTex region this
weekend into early next week with storm total amounts upwards of
ten inches in the favored locations of the Ouachita Mountains. In
addition, we can expect severe weather with the passage of a line
or even two lines of TSTMS during Saturday and Sunday.

Expect quiet weather to then begin next week and the beginning of
May behind the cold front that sweeps across the region during
Sunday.  /VIII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 111 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, Squall line coming together near KTYR/KTXK/KLIT
moving E at 30KTS. At this pace 19Z-01Z is currently in TAFS with
all terminals sporting tempo groups for wind to 40KT and 1sm, of
course some variation will occur and further amendments to follow
observed pace on our radar. Sfc winds are S/SE over LA, but SW/S
over TX with the former potentially tornadic this aftn with decent
heating. W/NW will follow convection closely and strong sustained
values will quickly drop off W to E with only weak high pressure.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  78  62  87 /  30  10  10  20
MLU  52  77  60  87 /  50  10  10  20
DEQ  42  75  56  81 /  30   0  10  30
TXK  46  76  59  84 /  40   0  10  30
ELD  48  76  58  84 /  60  10  10  20
TYR  47  80  64  87 /  20   0  10  20
GGG  46  79  63  87 /  20   0  10  20
LFK  51  85  65  92 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1119 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-271630-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1119 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A potent cold front will move across the Four State Region
through this evening. Very strong southerly winds ahead of the
cold front will increase instability across the region, leading to
the development of a line of thunderstorms along the front. Some
of the thunderstorms will be severe with large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and an isolated tornado or two across the northern half of
the ArkLaTex region. In addition, windy conditions will occur
along, ahead, and just behind the cold front, with sustained wind
speeds increasing into the 15 to 25 mph range, with gusts nearing
40 mph or higher this afternoon through this evening. A Lake Wind
Advisory is therefore in effect from through 9 pm this Wednesday
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Very warm, humid, and unstable conditions will return to the
region by Friday as a warm front lifts back north, with isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible along and north of
this returning front Thursday night and Friday. An isolated
severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out Friday with this
activity.

The approach of another upper level disturbance for the weekend
will result in the development of a line of thunderstorms along a
cold front, that will move across the Four State Region from west
to east during Saturday night into Sunday morning. Once again,
strong wind shear and instability may lead to some of the
thunderstorms becoming strong to severe.

In addition, very heavy rainfall upwards to a foot is possible
across portions of central and southern Arkansas during this
upcoming weekend. Accordingly, the flooding threat increases
markedly this weekend and early next week as Arkansas rivers and
bayous respond to the heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will be required early this
Wednesday afternoon through this Wednesday evening.

VIII.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
244 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

ARZ059-060-070-071-TXZ097-112-262030-
Hempstead AR-Lafayette AR-Little River AR-Miller AR-Cass TX-Bowie TX-
244 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LITTLE RIVER...
SOUTHWESTERN HEMPSTEAD...MILLER...NORTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE...
NORTHEASTERN CASS AND SOUTHEASTERN BOWIE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 243 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Queen City, or 11 miles northeast of Atlanta,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Texarkana, Queen City, Fouke, Garland, Fulton, Mandeville, Genoa,
Mount Pleasant, Bloomburg, Domino, McNab, Ferguson, Pleasant Hill,
Hervey, Homan and Piney Grove.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for southwestern
Arkansas...and northeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3309 9405 3320 9420 3371 9389 3347 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 220DEG 30KT 3326 9405

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             3 N LONGVIEW            32.56N 94.76W
04/26/2017  E0.75 INCH       GREGG              TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
257 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             3 N LONGVIEW            32.56N 94.76W
04/26/2017  E1.00 INCH       GREGG              TX   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
339 PM CDT WED APR 26 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N JEFFERSON           32.81N 94.34W
04/26/2017                   MARION             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DEPARTMENT REPORTS TREES DOWN ACROSS
            FM ROAD 1324.

&&

20