River Flood Warning 7, NWS Shreveport, LA

712 
WGUS84 KSHV 201341
FLSSHV


FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
741 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


Do not drive vehicles through flooded waterways.  Use caution when 
walking near flooded riverbanks.  Do not try to wade or swim in 
flooded rivers and bayous.

For more hydrologic information, copy and paste the following website
address into your favorite web browser URL bar:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv

&&

TXC403-405-201411-
/O.CAN.KSHV.FL.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170120T1800Z/
/AYIT2.1.ER.170119T1435Z.170119T1845Z.170119T2230Z.NO/
741 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Ayish Bayou Near San Augustine, Texas.
* At 715 AM Friday The stage was 11.3 feet. 
* Fell below flood stage at 430 PM Thursday.
* Flood stage is 12 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 9.6 feet by Saturday 
  morning.  Also the Ayish Bayou crested at 12.2 feet during midday
  Thursday.
* Impact...at 12.0 feet...Lowland flooding of the heavily wooded 
  floodplain will continue for the next several days.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 9415 3155 9409 3139 9414 3130 9412 3130 9416

$$

VIII.

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
552 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
LIFR/VLIFR cigs with reduced vsbys in FG will persist this morning
across the region, as a warm front will continue to gradually lift
N across NE LA/SE AR/N MS through the afternoon. While the more
organized and deeper convection lies to our S over Cntrl/Srn LA
and Ern LA into MS, areas of -SHRA should develop and shift NE
across lower E TX into N LA/Scntrl AR later this morning, which
should help to slightly improve vsbys. These -SHRA should
gradually diminish from W to E by early afternoon, exiting the
region by/shortly after 21Z. Drier air aloft mixing E with the
passage of the associated upper level low this afternoon should
result in the low cigs eventually mixing out over at least the
Wrn sections of E TX by mid to late afternoon, but did maintain
MVFR cigs for the GGG/LFK/SHV terminals with IFR cigs expected to
prevail farther E across much of N LA/SW AR. For those areas where
cigs do lift/scatter out, low MVFR cigs should develop by mid-
evening and fill back in, persisting through the remainder of the
TAF period with the slightly stronger bndry lyr winds. IFR cigs
with patchy FG should remain overnight across N LA/SW AR where
winds will be weaker, with gradual improvement expected by late
morning/early afternoon Friday. Lt/VRB winds this morning will
gradually become S and increase to 5-11kts after 18Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 344 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Today fog will persist through the morning along with light rain
across the region which will make conditions dreary. A Front has
moved into the area from the west but has become stationary across
portions of Northern Louisiana and Southeast Oklahoma this
morning. Conditions will improve on Friday with temperatures
rebounding to U60s to L70s South of I-20; Southerly winds will
help usher in humid air from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the short
wave trough in the SW United States.

Saturday, the short wave trough will continue to move east and
bring unsettled weather across the Ark-La-Tex in the form of
showers and thunderstorms. At this time we can't rule out severe
weather across the area with the instability profiles looking
marginally conducive. Saturday model data is showing LCL heights <
1500 ft along with a low level jet of 50 to 100 kts combined with
with 20 kts of shear at the surface for the four state region.

Sunday the weather will be east of the Ark-La-Tex with clearing
and light southerly winds which will allow the area to dry out
until the next weather maker next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  54  72  55 /  40  10  10  30
MLU  70  54  73  57 /  80  10  10  40
DEQ  64  49  68  48 /  20  10  10  20
TXK  62  52  69  53 /  30  10  10  30
ELD  64  51  70  54 /  60  10  10  20
TYR  68  52  71  54 /  10   0  10  30
GGG  67  53  71  54 /  20  10  10  30
LFK  67  55  74  57 /  30  10  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
413 AM CST THU JAN 19 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-201015-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-
MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
413 AM CST THU JAN 19 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM TYLER TO DEQUEEN. THE STRONGEST STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.