Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
932 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
850 mb low-level convergence across the Interstate 30 corridor
and Red-River valley generating elevated scattered convection
across these areas. With precipitable water values over 2 inches,
locally heavy rainfall is possible. Current convective process to
persist through around midnight before gradually diminishing.
Flash Flood watch remains in effect through the overnight hours
into Monday. Current forecast is on track at this time. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017/

.AVIATION...
Aftn convection has mostly diminished for the time
being. A complex of stg tstms approaching DFW metro may skim ne TX
before curving sewd and possibly diminishing later tonight.
Meanwhile, closer to the sfc front over southern OK, will likely
intensify this eve and ride closer to the front eastward into the
I-30 region of cwa after 07/06z. KTXK, KTYR, KGGG, and KSHV will
likely see some development of tstms. Aside from possible
restrictions in convection, expecting mostly VFR conditions
overnight as deepest moisture confined to the mid lvls. For Mon
aftn, frontal boundary begin moving south toward I-20, so in
addition to daytime htg, expect enhanced tstm development near
front with pcpn water values aob 2.25 inches and locally heavy
rain and gusty winds in downbursts a sig aviation hazard. Outside
of convection, mainly southerly winds 5 to 10 kts in daytime, with
lgt and vrbl winds in vcnty of fropa./07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  84  73  84 /  80  80  50  50
MLU  74  84  72  84 /  70  70  50  50
DEQ  72  83  71  84 /  70  60  30  30
TXK  72  83  72  84 /  70  70  40  40
ELD  73  83  71  84 /  70  70  50  50
TYR  75  84  74  85 /  80  80  50  50
GGG  75  84  73  84 /  80  80  50  50
LFK  76  87  73  85 /  50  80  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for ARZ050-051-059-070.

LA...None.
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136-137.

&&

05/07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1206 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly spread southeast across
portions of Northeast Texas, Southern Arkansas, and into extreme
Northern Louisiana this afternoon, along and behind a weak surface
boundary, and ahead of an upper level disturbance over Oklahoma
and extreme Northern Texas. Some of the stronger storms will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, with
minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas possible
especially over portions of extreme Northeast Texas. Farther south
across Deep East Texas and Northcentral Louisiana, isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and tonight, with brief heavy rainfall possible.

Additional shower and thunderstorm development will occur later
tonight across Northeast Texas, extreme Southeast Oklahoma,
Southwest Arkansas and possibly extreme Northern Louisiana, as a
series of weak upper level disturbances approach the region from
the west. Locally heavy rainfall and the threat for flash flooding
will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across much of the
region Monday morning, which should spread southward across Deep
East Texas and Northcentral Louisiana during the day. The threat
for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will be possible
Monday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to gradually
diminish late in the day. Additional scattered to numerous shower
and thunderstorm development is possible over the region Tuesday,
as weak upper level disturbances interact with a weak surface
front, which could result in localized flash flooding. Showers
and thunderstorms should become more isolated to scattered
Wednesday through Saturday as the unsettled weather pattern will
continue. Brief heavy rainfall, minor flooding of low lying, poor
drainage areas, and gusty winds will be possible from the stronger
storms Wednesday through Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed tonight over portions of Northeast
Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and possibly
extreme Northern Louisiana.

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