Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
330 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Convection has remained scattered this aftn with no real
organization noted. However, a scattered band of convection has
begun to persist, mainly between I-30 and I-20. HRRR also shower
a short tstm segment movg into ne TX this eve. For these reasons,
will go likely pops this eve across nw portions of cwa. the lazy
upper low will slowly shift south across the Red River into ne TX
by late Sunday. Pops will generally be on the increase across the
area as this upper low gains in proximity, especially closer to
the low center, but also coming onshore with increased southerly
flow. Pops to finally begin to taper off gradually as drier air
to the north of the sagging low center infilterates into the area
by mid week. However, models are fairly transient with areas of
deeper moisture and boundaries with no clear focus on prolonged
rain which could warrant any kind of flood watch, so will not
consider attm. Temps will remain fairly persisted, particularly in
regard to overnight lows, but with cloud based variations with
regard to aftn highs./07/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017/

AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through the
afternoon and continue through 04/02Z across area terminals. Will
see a return of convection around 04/08Z, continuing through
04/14Z. Mainly VFR conditions today, outside of convection, to
become MVFR/IFR around daybreak. Ceilings to improve to MVFR by
04/18Z. Otherwise, light winds to prevail through the terminal
forecast period. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  83  71  83 /  50  70  50  60
MLU  72  82  72  83 /  20  70  40  60
DEQ  71  83  69  84 /  60  70  50  50
TXK  72  83  69  83 /  50  70  50  50
ELD  71  82  70  84 /  40  70  40  60
TYR  72  84  71  83 /  60  60  50  60
GGG  72  84  71  83 /  50  60  50  60
LFK  73  84  72  84 /  40  70  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-041715-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1211 PM CDT Sat Jun 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity throughout
today as an upper level trough expands farther across our region
from the west. In addition, a surface trough will lift northward
from the Gulf of Mexico and aid in the additional development of
thunderstorms this afternoon across the southern half of the area.
These storms could produce periods of brief heavy rainfall, gusty
winds, and frequent lightning. Otherwise, no organized threat of
severe weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

An unsettled weather pattern will continue into Sunday and through
early next week as the upper level trough slowly shifts eastward
across the region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will remain
likely through Monday as a result of the upper trough orienting
itself directly across the Ark-La-Tex region. Additionally, a weak
frontal boundary will be shifting south into the region on Tuesday
with the chance of thunderstorms finally ending Tuesday night as
the front shifts south toward the coast. Although stronger storms
will still be possible, no organized threat of severe weather is
expected at this time

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
639 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

LAZ018-020-040030-
Natchitoches LA-Grant LA-
639 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL GRANT AND
SOUTHEASTERN NATCHITOCHES PARISHES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 636 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Flatwoods, or 8 miles west of Lena, moving northeast at 10 mph.
The thunderstorm will affect Interstate 49 traffic between mile
marker 110 to around mile marker 120 with very heavy downpours
reducing visibility to near zero.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colfax, Chopin, Cloutierville, Aloha and Gorum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3148 9304 3167 9283 3152 9267 3150 9271
      3152 9272 3149 9276 3148 9276 3138 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 240DEG 7KT 3149 9292

06

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
733 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

LAZ010-040115-
De Soto LA-
733 PM CDT SAT JUN 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL DE SOTO PARISH
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 732 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stonewall, or 12 miles north of Mansfield. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. This storm
has also exhibited some weak rotation.

Locations impacted include...
Stonewall, Frierson and Kingston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 9384 3232 9372 3232 9371 3233 9370
      3218 9364 3217 9378
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 240DEG 0KT 3220 9375

12