Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS San Diego, CA

825 
WGUS66 KSGX 020326
FFASGX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE San Diego CA
826 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA ON
WEDNESDAY...

.A very moist and unstable air mass in place over Southern
California will interact with several disturbances moving over the
region from the south and southeast to produce widespread showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday. The main focus for possible heavy 
rainfall and flash flooding will be over inland areas, however 
some of the rain is likely to affect areas close to the coast as
well. The heavy rain could produce urban flooding in poorly
drained areas, and debris flows below recent burn scars.

CAZ050-057-554-021300-
/O.EXA.KSGX.FF.A.0005.170802T1800Z-170803T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Diego County Valleys-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills-
Orange County Inland Areas-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Escondido, El Cajon, San Marcos, La Mesa,
Santee, Poway, Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, Irvine, Orange, 
Fullerton, and Mission Viejo
826 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in San Diego has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southwest
  California...including the following...Orange County Inland
  Areas...San Diego County Valleys and the Santa Ana Mountains 
  and Foothills. 

* from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening

* Potential for slow moving thunderstorms. Rainfall rates
  exceeding one inch per hour are possible at times, which could 
  result in flash flooding. Debris flows/mudslides from recent 
  burn scars are also possible. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

CAZ048-055-056-058-060>062-065-021300-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.A.0005.170802T1800Z-170803T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
San Bernardino County Mountains-Riverside County Mountains-
San Diego County Mountains-Apple and Lucerne Valleys-
Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-
San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario, 
Moreno Valley, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, Corona, Crestline, 
Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear City, Big Bear Lake, Running Springs, 
Wrightwood, Idyllwild-Pine Cove, Julian, Pine Valley, 
Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Lucerne Valley, Indio, 
Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Palm Desert, Palm Desert Country, 
La Quinta, Coachella, Borrego Springs, Banning, 
and Desert Hot Springs
826 PM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southwest California including the following...
  Apple and Lucerne Valleys...Coachella Valley...Riverside County
  Mountains...San Bernardino County Mountains...San Bernardino and
  Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire...San Diego County 
  Deserts...San Diego County Mountains AND San Gorgonio Pass Near 
  Banning. 

* from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening

* Potential for slow moving thunderstorms. Rainfall rates 
  exceeding one inch per hour are possible at times, which could 
  result in flash flooding. Debris flows/mudslides from recent 
  burn scars are also possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JAD

704 
WGUS66 KSGX 020935
FFASGX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE San Diego CA
235 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.A very moist and unstable air mass in place over Southern 
California will interact with several disturbances moving over the
region from the southeast, to produce occasional showers and 
thunderstorms through this evening. The main focus for areas of 
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be over inland areas, 
however some of the rain is likely to affect areas closer to the 
coast as well. In addition to the flash flood risk for inland
areas, the heavy rain could produce flooding problems over 
urbanized land and debris flows below recent burn scars.

CAZ048-050-055>058-060>062-065-554-022100-
/O.EXT.KSGX.FF.A.0005.170802T1200Z-170803T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
San Diego County Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains-
Riverside County Mountains-Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills-
San Diego County Mountains-Apple and Lucerne Valleys-
Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-
San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-Orange County Inland Areas-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario, 
Moreno Valley, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, Corona, Escondido, 
El Cajon, San Marcos, La Mesa, Santee, Poway, Crestline, 
Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear City, Big Bear Lake, Running Springs, 
Wrightwood, Idyllwild-Pine Cove, Julian, Pine Valley, 
Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Lucerne Valley, Indio, 
Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Palm Desert, Palm Desert Country, 
La Quinta, Coachella, Borrego Springs, Banning, 
Desert Hot Springs, Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, Irvine, 
Orange, Fullerton, and Mission Viejo
235 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE Flash Flood Watch IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* A PORTION OF southwest California...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  Apple and ...Lucerne Valleys...Coachella Valley...Orange 
  County Inland Areas...Riverside County Mountains...San 
  Bernardino County Mountains...San Bernardino and Riverside 
  County Valleys-The Inland Empire...San Diego County Deserts... 
  San Diego County Mountains...San Diego County Valleys...San 
  Gorgonio Pass Near Banning AND Santa Ana Mountains and 
  Foothills. 

* through this evening

* Potential for slow moving thunderstorms. Rainfall rates 
  exceeding one inch per hour are possible with the heaviest 
  storms, which could result in flash flooding. Debris flows and 
  mudslides from recent burn scars are also possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

jmb

weather.gov/sandiego

509 
WGUS66 KSGX 022038
FFASGX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE San Diego CA
138 PM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...Flash Flood Watch For Inland Areas of Southern California
Through Thursday Evening...

.A very moist and unstable air mass will remain in place over 
Southern California and interact with an upper level trough to 
produce the potential of flash flooding over inland areas of
Southern California through Thursday evening. The main focus for 
areas of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be over the
mountains, although heavy rain is also expected to affect portions
of the Inland Empire and the eastern most inland valleys of San 
Diego County as well.

CAZ048-050-055-056-058-060>062-065-030500-
/O.EXT.KSGX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-170804T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
San Diego County Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains-
Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-
Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-
San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario, 
Moreno Valley, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, Corona, Escondido, 
El Cajon, San Marcos, La Mesa, Santee, Poway, Crestline, 
Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear City, Big Bear Lake, Running Springs, 
Wrightwood, Idyllwild-Pine Cove, Julian, Pine Valley, 
Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Lucerne Valley, Indio, 
Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Palm Desert, Palm Desert Country, 
La Quinta, Coachella, Borrego Springs, Banning, 
and Desert Hot Springs
138 PM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for

* A portion of southwest California...including the following
  Apple and Lucerne Valleys...Coachella Valley...Riverside County
  Mountains...San Bernardino County Mountains...San Bernardino and
  Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire...San Diego County
  Deserts...San Diego County Mountains...San Diego County Valleys
  and San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. 

* Through Thursday evening

* Potential for slow moving thunderstorms. Rainfall rates
  exceeding one inch per hour are possible with the heaviest
  storms, which could result in flash flooding. Debris flows and
  mudslides from recent burn scars are also possible. Although
  thunderstorms will focus over the mountains, thunderstorms could
  develop and move across the deserts as well.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

CAZ057-554-030500-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-170803T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills-Orange County Inland Areas-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, Irvine,
Orange, Fullerton, and Mission Viejo
138 PM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...

THE Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southwest California...including the following 
  Orange County ...Inland Areas AND Santa Ana Mountains and 
  Foothills. 

* until 10 PM PDT this evening

* Potential for slow moving thunderstorms. Rainfall rates
  exceeding one inch per hour are possible with the heaviest
  storms, which could result in flash flooding. Debris flows and
  mudslides from recent burn scars are also possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
Gregoria

805 
WGUS66 KSGX 030449
FFASGX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE San Diego CA
949 PM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...Flash Flood Watch For Inland Areas of Southern California
Through Thursday Evening...

.A very moist and unstable air mass will continue over Southern 
California and bring a threat of flash flooding over inland areas
of Southern California through Thursday evening. The best chances 
of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be over the mountains, 
though the deserts and isolated locations in the Inland Empire 
could have flash flooding as well. Thunderstorm chances decrease 
rapidly Thursday evening.

CAZ057-554-030600-
/O.CAN.KSGX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-170803T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills-Orange County Inland Areas-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Santa Ana, Anaheim, Garden Grove, Irvine,
Orange, Fullerton, and Mission Viejo
949 PM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE Flash Flood Watch FOR A PORTION OF southwest California HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. No heavy rainfall is expected the rest of the
night over Orange County.

$$

CAZ048-050-055-056-058-060>062-065-031300-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-170804T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
San Diego County Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains-
Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-
Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-
San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario, 
Moreno Valley, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, Corona, Escondido, 
El Cajon, San Marcos, La Mesa, Santee, Poway, Crestline, 
Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear City, Big Bear Lake, Running Springs, 
Wrightwood, Idyllwild-Pine Cove, Julian, Pine Valley, 
Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Lucerne Valley, Indio, 
Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Palm Desert, Palm Desert Country, 
La Quinta, Coachella, Borrego Springs, Banning, 
and Desert Hot Springs
949 PM PDT Wed Aug 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE Flash Flood Watch CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF southwest California...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  Apple and Lucerne Valleys...Coachella Valley...Riverside County
  Mountains...San Bernardino County Mountains...San Bernardino 
  and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire... San Diego 
  County Deserts...San Diego County Mountains...San Diego County 
  Valleys AND San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. 

* through Thursday evening

* Potential for slow moving thunderstorms. Rainfall rates 
  exceeding one inch per hour are possible with the heaviest 
  storms, which could result in flash flooding. Debris flows and 
  mudslides from recent burn scars are also possible. Although 
  thunderstorms will focus over the mountains, thunderstorms 
  could develop and move across the deserts as well. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Maxwell

903 
WGUS66 KSGX 031229
FFASGX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE San Diego CA
529 AM PDT Thu Aug 3 2017

...Flash Flood Watch For Inland Areas of Southern California
Through this Evening...

.A very moist and unstable air mass will continue over Southern
California and bring a threat of flash flooding over inland areas
of Southern California through this evening. The best chances of 
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be over the mountains, 
though the deserts and isolated locations in the far inland
valleys could see some flash flooding as well. Thunderstorm 
chances decrease rapidly this evening.

CAZ048-050-055-056-058-060>062-065-032100-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-170804T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
San Diego County Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains-
Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-
Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-
San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario, 
Moreno Valley, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, Corona, Escondido, 
El Cajon, San Marcos, La Mesa, Santee, Poway, Crestline, 
Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear City, Big Bear Lake, Running Springs, 
Wrightwood, Idyllwild-Pine Cove, Julian, Pine Valley, 
Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Lucerne Valley, Indio, 
Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Palm Desert, Palm Desert Country, 
La Quinta, Coachella, Borrego Springs, Banning, 
and Desert Hot Springs
529 AM PDT Thu Aug 3 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE Flash Flood Watch CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF southwest California...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  Apple and ...Lucerne Valleys...Coachella Valley...Riverside 
  County Mountains...San Bernardino County Mountains...San 
  Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire... 
  San Diego County Deserts...San Diego County Mountains...San 
  Diego County Valleys AND San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. 

* through this evening

* Potential for very slow moving heavy thunderstorms. Rainfall 
  rates exceeding one inch per hour are possible with the heaviest
  storms, which could result in flash flooding. Debris flows and 
  mudslides from recent burn scars are also possible. Although 
  thunderstorms will focus over the mountains, thunderstorms could
  develop and move across the deserts as well.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

jmb

567 
WGUS66 KSGX 032059
FFASGX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE San Diego CA
159 PM PDT Thu Aug 3 2017

...Flash Flood Watch For Inland Areas of Southern California
Through this Evening...

.A very moist and unstable air mass will continue over Southern
California, continuing the threat of flash flooding through this 
evening across the mountains and deserts, with a lesser risk over
the Inland Empire and the far eastern valleys of San Diego County.
Thunderstorm chances decrease rapidly this evening.

CAZ048-050-055-056-058-060>062-065-040500-
/O.CON.KSGX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-170804T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
San Diego County Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains-
Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-
Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-
San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario, 
Moreno Valley, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, Corona, Escondido, 
El Cajon, San Marcos, La Mesa, Santee, Poway, Crestline, 
Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear City, Big Bear Lake, Running Springs, 
Wrightwood, Idyllwild-Pine Cove, Julian, Pine Valley, 
Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Lucerne Valley, Indio, 
Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Palm Desert, Palm Desert Country, 
La Quinta, Coachella, Borrego Springs, Banning, 
and Desert Hot Springs
159 PM PDT Thu Aug 3 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS
EVENING...

THE Flash Flood Watch CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF southwest California...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
  Apple and...Lucerne Valleys...Coachella Valley...Riverside
  County Mountains...San Bernardino County Mountains...San
  Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire... San  
  Diego County Deserts...San Diego County Mountains...San Diego 
  County Valleys AND San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. 

* until 10 PM PDT this evening

* Slow moving heavy thunderstorms will continue, focused across 
  the mountains and deserts. Rainfall rates exceeding one inch per
  hour are possible with the heaviest storms, which could result 
  in flash flooding. Debris flows and mudslides from recent burn 
  scars are also possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding.  Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
Gregoria

922 
WGUS66 KSGX 040145
FFASGX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE San Diego CA
645 PM PDT Thu Aug 3 2017

CAZ048-050-055-056-058-060>062-065-040245-
/O.CAN.KSGX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-170804T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
San Diego County Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains-
Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Mountains-
Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-
San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF Riverside, San Bernardino, Ontario, 
Moreno Valley, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, Corona, Escondido, 
El Cajon, San Marcos, La Mesa, Santee, Poway, Crestline, 
Lake Arrowhead, Big Bear City, Big Bear Lake, Running Springs, 
Wrightwood, Idyllwild-Pine Cove, Julian, Pine Valley, 
Victorville, Hesperia, Apple Valley, Lucerne Valley, Indio, 
Palm Springs, Cathedral City, Palm Desert, Palm Desert Country, 
La Quinta, Coachella, Borrego Springs, Banning, 
and Desert Hot Springs
645 PM PDT Thu Aug 3 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE Flash Flood Watch FOR A PORTION OF southwest California HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. Thunderstorms have ended over the mountains and
deserts of southwestern California, and the threat of any
additional flash flooding has diminished for this evening.

$$

Maxwell

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
936 AM PDT Tue Aug 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple upper level disturbances will move through Southern
California today through Wednesday, bringing chances for showers
and thunderstorms for all areas, especially over the mountains,
deserts and valleys Wednesday afternoon and evening. Monsoonal
moisture will likely result in afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms over the mountains, deserts and possibly valleys
Thursday. Decreasing moisture will lead to lessening chances for
afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains Friday through Monday,
with night and morning marine layer stratus becoming more
widespread in the coast and western valleys. High pressure aloft
will continue to bring above warm to hot conditions inland through
Friday before gradual cooling takes place this weekend through
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A upper level short-wave trough is currently moving through the
region, and has brought areas of showers and thunderstorms overnight
and this morning, with the majority of activity occurring over
Riverside and San Bernardino counties. So far, 868 total lightning flashes
and strikes combined were observed in our forecast area since last
night. Currently, radar shows showers over the high deserts
exiting into L.A. county while a showers and thunderstorms south
of the border and in Imperial county are moving northwest and
could bring another round of active weather late this morning into
the afternoon. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows about 250-500 J/KG of
MU CAPE across the region, and the morning sounding from Miramar
shows a precipitable water of 1.7 inches. However, most of the
moisture is located above 700 mb, so the showers/thunderstorms
have not produced heavy amounts of rainfall, with most locations
getting a few hundredths of an inch, with the San Bernardino
county mountains having received the most amount of rain (around
0.05-0.20 inches). However, if surface based thunderstorms are
able to develop over the mountains this afternoon, there could be
heavy rain and a higher potential for flash flooding. Meanwhile
on visible satellite, a clear slot is over most of the region,
which should allow good warming to take place, and highs may reach
5-10 degrees above normal today. For the morning forecast update,
increased highs today a little for the inland valleys. Models are
indicating potentially another round of nocturnal showers and
thunderstorms tonight/Wednesday morning for all areas as another
wave rotates into the area from the southeast. Finally, marine
layer stratus is evident about 10-20 miles inland, but clearing
will probably take place before patchy stratus moves inland again
10-15 miles tonight/Wednesday morning.

For Wednesday afternoon/evening, moisture increases further and
models also show another wave moving over the area, in addition to
surface based CAPE greater than 1000 J/KG. The 12Z GFS shows
precipitable water increasing to 2 inches, and the 12Z NAM12
shows it increasing to near 2.2 inches in some locations! With
east to southeast flow aloft of around 10-20 kt, storms may move a
bit too quickly for a high flash flood threat, but at least a
moderate flash flood threat can be expected in the mountains,
deserts and valleys. There's also the chance that some storms
could occur at the coast again.

Although there may be some drying on Thursday, there should still
be enough moisture and instability around for a fairly active
afternoon/early evening thunderstorm day over the mountains,
deserts and valleys, with wind flow turning to the south.

Models show significant drying (precipitable water possibly below
1 inch) taking place Friday as southwest flow moves in due to a
trough developing along the west coast, with continued drying
this weekend through Monday. Thus, starting Friday,
afternoon/early evening thunderstorm chances should be greatly
decreased.

Look for high temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal to continue
through Friday with a strong ridge to the north (centered near
northwest Nevada and northern California) extending down into
Southern California. Once the trough develops, we should start to
see gradual cooling this weekend into early next week, with highs
falling below normal by Sunday. The marine layer should be able to
re-establish itself late this week into early next week as the
monsoon moisture goes away, so expect night and morning marine
layer stratus along the coast and western valleys during that
time. Before Friday, the night and morning stratus along the coast
will likely be very patchy.

&&

.AVIATION...
011500Z...Stratus with bases 1000-1400 ft MSL and tops to
1800 ft MSL hanging on near portions of the coast. Clearing is
expected at the terminals, though low clouds could remain confined
to some immediate coastal locales this afternoon. Low cloud coverage
will be significantly less tonight, but CIGS near 1000 ft MSL after
02/06Z will be possible for a few hours, before scattering out
after 15Z Wed.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through
tonight, but low chances at any location. On Wednesday, chances
of thunderstorms increase for the mountains and deserts during the
afternoon. Brief moderate to heavy rain and gusty, erratic outflow
winds are possible with these storms. Otherwise SCT-BKN clouds at
or above 8000 ft layered to 25000 ft.

&&

.MARINE...
A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
Wednesday evening. These storms may produce gusty outflow winds,
locally heavy rain, and cloud-to-water lightning. A Marine Weather
Statement remains in effect through 11 PM Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A Beach Hazards Statement remains in effect for elevated surf and
strong rip currents through this evening. South swells will produce
surf of 4-6 feet with max sets to 7 feet in Orange county and far
northern San Diego County. Surf will range from 2-4 feet elsewhere.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible at the beaches through
Wednesday evening.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

Skywarn activation may be necessary on Wednesday.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...Harrison
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Gregoria