Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Strong southerly winds buffeting the area this afternoon with gusts
as high as 45 mph in a few locations. Expect these strong winds to
continue the remainder of the afternoon ahead of the cold front
over Kansas.

Plume of upper 50s to near 60 dew points have spread into the area
ahead of the front. Convection beginning to develop near Kansas City
and further development to the south is expected over the next few
hours and then blossom as it heads eastward ahead of the cold front.
Ample deep layer shear and mixed layer and surface based capes near
1000 j/kg will lead to a severe weather threat into the evening
hours. However, instability does drop off later this evening, so
window of opportunity for severe looks to be between 22Z-03Z. Short
term models indicating this activity clearing the eastern counties
around midnight or shortly there after. Pressure gradient remains
strong behind the front with rather strong cold air advection. This
will drop temperatures down into the lower 30s by morning and
combined with the winds will see wind chills in the 20s for the
morning commute.

Colder and drier air expected for the day Tuesday. Even with the
expected sunshine by afternoon highs will only be in the 40s. Winds
will make it feel even colder. These winds and drier air will also
lead to an elevated fire danger for the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

The Wednesday through Saturday time frame will see below normal
temperatures as a large trough over the eastern Conus allows colder
air to drop southward into southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks.
Both the GFS and ECMWF shows a re-enforcing shot of cold air towards
the end of end of the week as a shortwave drops south through the
flow, which could bring a little light snow/flurries or sprinkles to
those areas, depending on timing. Medium range models have offered
different tracks with these model differences leading to low
confidence.

As we head into the latter part of the weekend and into early next
week, the west coast ridge nudges eastward. Although northwest flow
will continue over the area, rising heights will lead to a slight
warming trend with dry weather expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2017

Strong southerly low level flow has brought a broad area of MVFR
stratus to southern Missouri. Ceilings have generally been in the
2K-3K foot range. South to southwest winds of 20 to 30 knots
likely through the afternoon hours at KSGF and KJLN, with somewhat
later winds at KBBG.

A strong cold front will move through the region this evening
with a band of showers and thunderstorms expected just ahead of
the front with timing generally between 22Z-03Z. The winds will
switch around the the northwest but still be rather breezy.
Ceilings will improve behind the front as drier air filters into
the area, with VFR flight conditions expected from mid evening on
through Tuesday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
310 PM CST MON DEC 4 2017

MOZ066-067-042130-
Vernon MO-St. Clair MO-
310 PM CST MON DEC 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN VERNON AND
NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CST...

At 310 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hume, or 7 miles southwest of Rich Hill, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Appleton City...                  Metz...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 102 and 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for
west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3806 9434 3805 9421 3812 9406 3821 9405
      3820 9381 3793 9451 3806 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 241DEG 35KT 3805 9449

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
316 PM CST MON DEC 4 2017

KSZ073-097-MOZ066-077-042200-
Bourbon KS-Crawford KS-Vernon MO-Barton MO-
316 PM CST MON DEC 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BOURBON...
NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...NORTHERN BARTON AND VERNON COUNTIES UNTIL 400
PM CST...

At 315 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Arcadia, or 11 miles south of Fort Scott, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nevada...                         Sheldon...
Montevallo...                     Arcadia...
Walker...                         Schell City...
Bronaugh...                       Moundville...
Milo...                           Deerfield...
Harwood...                        Oskaloosa...
Verdella...                       Garland...
Englevale...                      Hannon...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 75 and 99.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3783 9467 3806 9413 3804 9411 3805 9410
      3803 9408 3804 9407 3803 9406 3799 9406
      3764 9408 3755 9479
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 242DEG 45KT 3768 9470

Hatch