Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1244 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

All is quiet across the Missouri Ozarks region this morning but we
have been watching a couple features this morning. One very
localized cluster of storms just west of our CWA in southeast
Kansas that has been stationary over the past 3 or 4 hours. And we
are watching a complex of storms across northeast Kansas into
northwest Missouri moving southeastward. Hi-res model guidance
has been struggling with both of these features over the next few
hours.

We think the cluster in southeast Kansas will soon fizzle out and
not move into our local CWA this morning. The complex across
northern Missouri will mainly stay north of I-70 but will drop
down an outflow boundary later this morning into the afternoon.
That outflow boundary will be the focus for the development of
scattered showers and storms starting in Central Missouri and
slowly moving southward or even southwestward across the Missouri
Ozarks and maybe eventually southeast Kansas this afternoon. The
short term models do not pick up on this very well if any. The
NAMNest model guidance is trying to catch on the idea.

Given the strong instability and some shear, we think an isolated
strong storm is possible with gusty winds and hail up to the size
of quarters possible. There is abundant of low level moisture
available and there may be a localized heavy rainfall with any
storm that moves slowly.

There may be some pooling of dewpoints and surface moisture ahead
of the outflow boundary as it moves southward today. This will
help increase the heat index values especially for southeast
Kansas into western Missouri. There will be a heat advisory for
this afternoon for areas along and west of I-49 with heat index
values between 103 and 108 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

For the big Solar Eclipse, the sky conditions may be okay for some
and a little iffy for others across the region. The majority of
the area will see partly cloudy skies with a 20 percent chance
of a few showers or storms in the afternoon. The GFS is the most
bullish while the ECMWF and NAM has less QPF during the 17z to 19z
time frame. There may be more clouds just north of our local
area.

A decent shortwave will move across the Midwest Region on Tuesday
and bring down a Canadian cold front late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. Widespread showers and storms will be likely ahead and
along the cold front. A few strong storms will be possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across the area. On average a general half
an inch to 1 inch of rainfall will be possible with the rain on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

A very nice weather pattern will be around for the end of the week
into the early part of the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80 and overnight lows in the middle 50s to around 60
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered thunderstorms will continue early
in the taf period, especially from KBBG and KSGF and points east.
Otherwise outside of thunderstorms, tafs are VFR.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077-088-093-
     101.

KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1257 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211800-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1257 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Hail risk.
  Limited Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited Flooding risk.
  Limited Lightning risk.
  Elevated Excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible through early this
evening with the best chances in counties along and east of a line
from Osceola to Cassville. Isolated severe storms will be capable
of damaging winds and golf ball sized hail. Slow moving storms
may also produce localized flash flooding.

A combination of afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s and
high humidity will create heat index values of 103 to 108 degrees
for extreme southwestern Missouri into southeast Kansas this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periodic isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected Monday. Heat index values may reach 100 to 104 across
areas of southeast Kansas into parts of southwest and west
central Missouri.

There will be a better chance for widespread showers and storms
Tuesday and Tuesday night with the passage of a cold front. A few
strong storms will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

MOZ082-083-201700-
Dent MO-Texas MO-
1113 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN DENT AND TEXAS
COUNTIES UNTIL NOON CDT...

At 1113 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Houston, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montauk State Park...             Licking...
Houston...                        Summersville...
Raymondville...                   Huggins...
Plato...                          Montauk...
Bucyrus...                        Hazelton...
Elk Creek...                      Success...
Eunice...                         Yukon...
Roby...                           Hartshorn...
Solo...                           Simmons...
Prescott...                       Bendavis...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3718 9165 3714 9225 3756 9225 3760 9175
      3742 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 246DEG 26KT 3733 9209

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1205 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             1 E HARTSHORN           37.27N 91.66W
08/20/2017  E0.75 INCH       TEXAS              MO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED PENNY SIZED HAIL NEAR
            HARTSHORN.

&&

FRYE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

MOZ097-105-201745-
Ozark MO-Howell MO-
1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN OZARK AND
SOUTHWESTERN HOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Bakersfield, or 17 miles west of West Plains, moving
east at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Plains...                    South Fork...
Moody...                          Sycamore...
Dora...                           Pottersville...
Caulfield...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 9232 3680 9229 3679 9193 3661 9185
      3650 9200
TIME...MOT...LOC 1706Z 281DEG 5KT 3670 9217

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

MOZ098-201800-
Shannon MO-
1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SHANNON COUNTY UNTIL 100
PM CDT...

At 1212 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Summersville, or 19 miles north of Mountain View, moving east at 15
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Current River State Park...       Eminence...
Summersville...                   Alley Spring...
Midridge...                       Round Spring...
West Eminence...                  Akers...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3707 9123 3712 9165 3739 9164 3742 9124
      3741 9118 3725 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 273DEG 14KT 3725 9158

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

MOZ083-098-201800-
Dent MO-Shannon MO-
1216 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DENT COUNTY UNTIL 100 PM
CDT...

At 1216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Salem, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montauk State Park...             Bunker...
Turtle...                         Boss...
Jadwin...                         Howes Mill...
Darien...                         Stone Hill...
Gladden...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3759 9131 3751 9131 3750 9121 3742 9121
      3739 9164 3754 9168 3769 9115 3759 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 254DEG 18KT 3744 9156

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
150 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

MOZ106-201930-
Oregon MO-
150 PM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN OREGON COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM CDT...

At 150 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alton, or 18 miles northeast of Thayer, moving east at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Alton...                          Couch...
Greer...                          Myrtle...
Wilderness...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 9131 3689 9122 3683 9122 3682 9111
      3650 9113 3650 9153 3651 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 275DEG 6KT 3672 9131

Hatch