Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
249 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)

Thunderstorms have developed this afternoon as a frontal system
sagged into the region from the north. A few of these updrafts
could become organized, containing hail up to the size of quarters
and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

Afternoon temperatures have warmed into the middle and upper 80s,
yielding mixed layer cape values of 2000 to 2500 j/kg. While shear
is on the low side, moderate instability and moist mid levels will
allow some organization.

Residual storms will be possible into the overnight hours,
especially across far southern Missouri. Eventually this activity
will shift out of Missouri, bringing dry and cool weather for
Friday. As a matter of fact, temperatures Friday afternoon will
struggle to warm out of the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

By Friday night, mid level baroclinicity tightens up across the
Central Plains. This will force thunderstorms to develop across
Kansas, eventually shifting far western Missouri Saturday morning.
It's a little uncertain how far east this activity can survive,
but areas west of Interstate 49 have the best chances for rain
Saturday morning.

Additional storms are expected to develop on this same feature
Saturday afternoon and night, and we think most locations across
the Ozarks stand a good chance at getting wet. These storms will
linger into Sunday as a short wave trough tracks across the
region. Temperatures could be capped in the 70s on Sunday due to
precip and cloud cover.

A heavy rain set up then takes shape for Sunday night through
Monday Monday afternoon. A frontal system temporarily hangs up
across far southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. Periods of
excessive rain could develop along this feature, potentially
creating some localized flash flood issues.

The GFS forces the front south by Tuesday setting the stage for a
couple of quiet days. Ultimately temperatures will stay below
normal with afternoon highs in the upper 70s and low 80s on a
daily basis over the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

Generally, VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle.
That being said, there will be a chance for isolated
showers/T'storms through the afternoon and into the early evening
hours as a cold frontal boundary moves through the area. This
activity should remain rather isolated at best, however, locations
that receive rain will experience some reduction in cigs/vis.

Winds will shift from a westerly/southwesterly direction to a
more northerly direction over time. This will signify the passage
of the cold front due into southern Missouri by early
evening/sunset timeframe.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Frye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1252 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041800-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1252 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Hail risk.
  Limited Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will occur this afternoon and this
evening ahead of a cold front. Isolated strong to severe storms
will be possible with 60 mph winds and one inch hail. Widespread
severe weather is not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another system will bring a chance for rain and a few
thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday. Some storm total
rainfall amounts may reach 2 to 3 inches in some areas over
southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri with a limited risk for
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
143 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

MOZ068-069-080-031930-
Dallas MO-Camden MO-Hickory MO-
143 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HICKORY...NORTHWESTERN DALLAS AND
WEST CENTRAL CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 142 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wheatland, or over Hermitage, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pomme de Terre Lake...            Pomme De Terre State Park...
Pittsburg...                      Hermitage...
Urbana...                         Wheatland...
Preston...                        Cross Timbers...
Quincy...                         Tunas...
Elkton...                         Branch...
Nemo...

LAT...LON 3807 9297 3777 9302 3787 9352 3807 9350
      3806 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 313DEG 18KT 3794 9336

Frye

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
216 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

MOZ078-032000-
Cedar MO-
216 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CEDAR COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM CDT...

At 216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stockton, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton Lake...                  Stockton State Park...
Stockton...                       Umber View Heights...
Bearcreek...                      Masters...
Wagoner...                        Cane Hill...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3772 9396 3774 9361 3758 9362 3757 9378
      3758 9399
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 270DEG 17KT 3766 9390

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
224 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

MOZ066-032015-
Vernon MO-
224 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VERNON COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM CDT...

At 223 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nevada, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nevada...                         Sheldon...
Montevallo...                     Bronaugh...
Moundville...                     Milo...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3784 9443 3780 9407 3767 9407 3764 9408
      3764 9413 3765 9442 3767 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 284DEG 15KT 3774 9438

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
307 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

KSZ097-032100-
Crawford KS-
307 PM CDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAWFORD COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM
CDT...

At 307 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walnut, or near St. Paul, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg...                      Frontenac...
Girard...                         Arma...
Mulberry...                       Chicopee...
Franklin...                       Walnut...
Burgess...                        Beulah...
Opolis...                         Croweburg...
Greenbush...                      Yale...
Ringo...                          Lone Oak...
Brazilton...                      Polk...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 9508 3758 9461 3734 9462 3734 9473
      3739 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 284DEG 15KT 3753 9507

Wise