Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
634 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

No major changes to the overall forecast message this afternoon
and tonight, with strong/severe thunderstorms still expected to
affect a large portion of the area. Large hail, straight line
winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

Early this afternoon, an area of low pressure was located just
south of Wichita, with a warm front lifting north through
southwestern Missouri. Gusty south/southeast winds and partly
sunny skies have allowed 1 PM temperatures to warm into the upper
60s across much of southeastern Kansas and southern Missouri, with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. As the atmosphere
continues to destabilize this afternoon, thunderstorms are
expected to develop across southeastern Kansas and northeastern
Oklahoma, and move northeast into the forecast area by mid
afternoon. Moderate instability and very favorable shear profiles
should yield a few supercells, with large hail and tornadoes the
primary threats. We will need to be especially mindful this
afternoon of the position of the surface warm front, as the
tornado threat will be maximized with any supercell that is able
to move parallel to the boundary.

This convection will continue north and east into southern and
central Missouri by late afternoon, with additional thunderstorms
expected to move north from northern Arkansas into southern
Missouri by the late afternoon and evening hours. Again,
supercells will be favored early on, with an attendant hail and
tornado risk. With time, convection is expected to form into a
series of linear segments, with an increasing risk for straight
line winds. A tornado risk will continue with any northeastward
surging line segments as well.

While individual cell motion should be fairly rapid toward the
northeast, the synoptic scale motion of this storm system will be
rather slow, suggesting that convection may linger well into the
late night hours, especially east of Highway 63.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Convection should be ongoing Thursday morning with the area
solidly in the warm sector. Question then becomes will the
atmosphere destabilize enough on Thursday afternoon. Surface
front is forecast to be located roughly along Highway 63 on
Thursday morning. The possibility is there that the day's severe
convection will get started over south central Missouri. Believe
hail and wind will be the threats if storms do develop.

This system moves out by Friday morning. The area is then under an
upper level ridge until the next system approaches on Sunday. This
system looks to take a more southerly track as it digs towards the
Texas Gulf Coast. So...we should be more on the northern periphery
of the rain shield. This system departs late Monday evening with
yet another system approaching by Tuesday evening.

With the rather progressive flow...will not see too much variation
in day to day temperatures with a slight cool down as one system
departs followed by a decent warm up with the approach of the next
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Scattered convection will continue in the CWA this evening. Not
expecting too much for JLN, but there is still a window for both
SGF/BBG during the evening hours. Could see brief period of
MVFR/IFR with any cell that goes across the terminal location, but
overall should remain in VFR until around mid morning Thursday.
Should start to see MVFR ceilings develop with the surface low
pushing across the area. Will also see rain and rain showers with
the low on Thursday with winds gradually shifting around to the
southwest-northwest.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gaede
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
617 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-302330-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
617 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado Risk.
  Elevated Hail Risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm Wind Damage Risk.
  Limited Flooding Risk.
  Significant Lightning Risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Thunderstorms will continue through the evening into the
  overnight hours tonight. A few thunderstorms are expected to
  become strong or severe, with a risk for damaging winds, and
  perhaps a tornado or two.

  In addition, storms that produce locally heavy rain or
  continually train over a given area will produce a limited
  risk for flooding, primarily for low water crossings and poor
  drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

  The potential for strong to severe storms will continue into
  Thursday especially across the eastern Ozarks. Large hail will
  be the primary severe weather risk Thursday.

  Thunderstorms will also be possible with the next system that
  moves through the area from Sunday through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed this evening across southeastern
 Kansas and southern Missouri.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Boxell

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
739 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             3 SW YUKON              37.24N 91.88W
03/29/2017  E0.88 INCH       TEXAS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
IRIS SYSTEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
755 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

MOZ096-300130-
Douglas MO-
755 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY UNTIL 830
PM CDT...

At 755 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ava, moving north at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ava...                            Goodhope...
Rome...                           Squires...
Dogwood...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3681 9290 3707 9290 3707 9258 3706 9253
      3680 9253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 180DEG 27KT 3694 9267

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
833 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             OSAGE BEACH             38.15N 92.62W
03/29/2017  M0.25 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
839 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     HAIL             4 E BRUSHYKNOB          36.97N 92.42W
03/29/2017  E0.75 INCH       DOUGLAS            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

&&

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
846 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0827 PM     HAIL             3 SSW CAMDENTON         37.97N 92.77W
03/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       CAMDEN             MO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTH OF HA HA TONKA
            STATE PARK. TIME BASED ON RADAR.

&&

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
IRIS SYSTEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
931 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

MOZ097-300315-
Howell MO-
931 PM CDT WED MAR 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOWELL COUNTY UNTIL 1015
PM CDT...

At 931 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of West Plains, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Plains...                    Mountain View...
Pomona...                         South Fork...
Peace Valley...                   White Church...
Pottersville...                   Caulfield...

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3662 9212 3669 9212 3705 9187 3705 9166
      3687 9166 3654 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0231Z 212DEG 39KT 3666 9201

Wise