Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Springfield, MO

424 
WWUS53 KSGF 091944
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
144 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

MOC185-092000-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0061.000000T0000Z-170309T2000Z/
St. Clair MO-
144 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST
FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY...

At 144 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lowry City, or
14 miles south of Clinton, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Public. Golf ball size hail was reported in the 
         city of Appleton City Missouri with this storm. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake...                    Lowry City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 9351 3819 9350 3812 9370 3813 9390
      3821 9390 3820 9356 3822 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 256DEG 39KT 3817 9378 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Wise

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

Low level moisture is increasing fairly quickly this morning with
Td's jumping from 36 at 8am to 52 at 11am. This along with the
frontal forcing along the lifting warm front, available shear,
steep lapse rates and increasing instability will allow for the
development of thunderstorms from now into this afternoon.

There may be a brief break in the storm development as the
current convection moves to the ENE this morning. Mesoscale
models are developing additional convection early this afternoon
across eastern Kansas and NE Oklahoma and moving into the Ozarks
as we the into the afternoon hours. Main concern with the initial
storms this morning will be large hail.

Storms this afternoon will also have hail as a primary concern
with strong winds as well. While not out of the question an
isolated tornado is possible though changes are rather low at this
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

For today, will need to monitor the moisture increase ahead of the
front as we will likely see temperatures rocket into the mid 70s
during the afternoon. Raw model instability looks to be overdone
given the poor initialization with respect to dewpoints. We have
used readings closer to MOS guidance which does increase dewpoints
back into the low to mid 50s ahead of the front later today. 0-6
bulk shear of 50-55kts by late afternoon early evening combined
with even lowered CAPE values should be sufficient for some storms
to produce large hail given the WBZ heights. Not overly impressed
with 0-1km shear so not really seeing much of a tornado risk. SPC
does have a 2% and 5% over the CWA for Tornado risk and will make
a last minute decision on whether to keep this risk in the morning
HWO product.

The timing of the potential severe weather will be from mid to
late afternoon into the early evening, with large hail the primary
risk and a secondary thunderstorm wind risk.

Drier air should quickly move in behind the front with little to
no precipitation occurring after 03z. Clearing should take place
overnight with lows dipping back down into the 30s for most
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

Ole man winter isn't through with us just yet. A strong upper
speed max will begin to carve out a trough in the eastern U.S. on
Friday with northwest flow setting up over our region. Another
shortwave will push southeast out of the Rockies and into the
central U.S. on Saturday. The main surface low should remain well
to our south, but the shortwave will help to reinforce the colder
air deeper into the area. It will also bring precipitation back to
the forecast as moisture increases ahead of the shortwave. Eastern
sections of the CWA will have the best chance at "measurable" wet
snow with mainly rain to the southwest CWA and possibly some sleet
mixed in with the rain/snow in between. Forecast soundings not
showing a long lasting or real warm nose (2-3 deg C) and
antecedent ground conditions too warm to concern ourselves with
freezing rain at this time. Snow will probably have a hard time
sticking to pavement as well with March sun angles and most of the
snow during the day, as well as warm ground temperatures due to a
very warm winter. That being said, we could get between 1-2 inches
of snow in the grassy areas over the eastern Ozarks, however the
overall impacts with the winter weather appear to be rather
minimal at this point.

Of more concern will be with temperatures on Saturday night,
especially over the eastern Ozarks. Those with agricultural
interests should begin preparing for a hard freeze with lows in
the upper teens over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 20s in the
southwest CWA.

Another quick moving upper system will move into the area on
Sunday night into Monday which could bring another round of light
snow Sunday night, changing to rain during the day Monday.

Much of the first part of the week will remain on the chilly side,
but we should begin to recover for the later part of next work
week with upper ridge building back into the area and temperatures
returning back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

Flight conditions across the region will be VFR for the most
part. SHowers and thunderstorms are expected to develop through
this afternoon and into this evening. Where storms move over area
terminal and airfield, visibilities and ceilings will fall to
MVFR or briefly IFR, however, coverage and duration will be very
limited and hard to pinpoint. Have used Vicinity wording to cover
the quick moving nature or of the storms today. For late this
evening and overnight conditions will be VFR with only scattered
high clouds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Hatch
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
113 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
113 PM CST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.
  Elevated Fire weather risk.

DISCUSSION...

 Moisture will continue to increase this afternoon across the
area which will lead increasing instability ahead of a cold
front. Thunderstorms will continue to develop and impact the
Ozarks through this afternoon and early evening. Some of the
storms could become strong to severe with large hail and damaging
wind and an isolated tornado the main severe weather risks
expected.

Some elevated fire weather concerns will still be possible across
portions of the eastern Ozarks today, however the increasing
moisture will help to mitigate this as the afternoon progresses.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A colder, arctic air will move in behind the cold front on
Friday, with a chance of snow late Friday night into Saturday.
Some accumulating slushy wet snow will be possible across the
eastern Ozarks. Another shot of light snow will come Sunday night
into Monday morning.

A hard freeze is then expected to take place Friday night for
areas across central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks and then
Saturday night across the area with some teens across the eastern
Ozarks to mid 20s in the southwest corner of Missouri. Another
hard freeze is expected on Monday night with lows from the low to
mid 20s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1208 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 PM     HAIL             NEVADA                  37.84N 94.36W
03/09/2017  U0.75 INCH       VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            .

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1211 PM     HAIL             NEVADA                  37.84N 94.36W
03/09/2017  M1.25 INCH       VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            .

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     HAIL             3 N NEVADA              37.89N 94.35W
03/09/2017  U1.75 INCH       VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            .

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION TO LOCATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1222 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 PM     HAIL             1 N NEVADA              37.89N 94.35W
03/09/2017  U1.75 INCH       VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1227 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1223 PM     HAIL             WALKER                  37.90N 94.22W
03/09/2017  U0.50 INCH       VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA TO MARBLE SIZED (0.50 INCH) HAIL.

&&

MMT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

MOZ067-091945-
St. Clair MO-
1258 PM CST THU MAR 9 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM CST...

At 1257 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Appleton City, or 18 miles southwest of Clinton, moving east at
45 mph.

Penny to Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake...                    Appleton City...
Lowry City...                     Johnson City...

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM CST for
central and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3821 9354 3821 9351 3820 9350 3811 9351
      3809 9405 3821 9405 3820 9356 3822 9357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 249DEG 47KT 3817 9400

Wise