Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
525 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Strong southerly flow continues to push relatively warm and moist
air into the area ahead of a dry line and cold front to our west.
Low level mixing this afternoon has limited dewpoints a bit, but
much of the area is still on track to see low to perhaps mid 60s
dewpoints by this evening. This will result in a moderately
unstable airmass across the region, setting the stage for severe
weather this evening into the overnight hours.

The first opportunity for severe weather will occur during the
early to mid evening hours, particularly west of Highway 65.
As height falls overspread the frontal zone, a few supercells may
develop across the warm sector, perhaps affecting the western
portions of the forecast area. Development of these discrete
supercells is still in question, but should they form, large hail
and tornadoes will be possible given very favorable shear
profiles.

Later this evening, additional development along the front will
grow upscale into a large linear complex, which will eventually
sweep east-southeast through the area from mid to late evening
into the predawn hours on Tuesday. Wind gusts to 70 MPH and large
hail appear likely with this activity. In addition, low level
shear vectors will be favorable for QLCS/mesovortex tornadoes with
the line, particularly where line segments are able to surge to
the east or east-northeast.

The discrete supercell threat will be greatest from 6-7 PM through
9-10 PM across the western CWA. By 10 PM, the line of
thunderstorms should be moving into southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri, with the line reaching a BBG to SGF to VIH line
between 11 and midnight. The line should then sweep across the
eastern half or so of the CWA through 3 AM.

Precipitation should clear the area by sunrise tomorrow, with
cooler and much drier air building into the area for Tuesday.
Gusty west to northwest winds will combine with RH between 15 and
20 percent to result in widespread elevated to significant fire
weather conditions on Tuesday. Winds will be strongest north of
I-44, and a Red Flag Warning will be in effect for this area from
11 AM through 7 PM Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

Zonal to slightly northwest flow will keep things dry and mild
through Thursday, with rain chances returning to the region from
Friday into the weekend. Temperatures will be cooler over the
weekend, though still at or just a hair above average. Fire
weather will again be a concern on Wednesday, with winds becoming
southerly and RH dropping to around 20 percent during the
afternoon. More appreciable moisture will finally build into the
area by Thursday ahead of the next storm system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 521 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move through the taf
sites 04z-08z with a line of thunderstorms. Some severe with
strong winds. Brief mvfr/ifr conditions are expected with heavier
rainshowers. VFR is expected post frontal. Strong south winds
ahead of the front will diminish for a time after the frontal
passage, but moderately strong gusts should pick back up again
toward 15z with sfc heating/mixing.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas along and north of I-44
on Tuesday, as very dry air builds into the region along with
gusty west to northwest winds. Right now, it looks like sustained
wind speeds may just touch Red Flag criteria on Tuesday; however,
very low RH is expected, with afternoon values between 15 and 20
percent.

Winds will become southerly on Wednesday, with RH expected to be
around 20 percent during the afternoon. Some parts of southeast
Kansas and western Missouri may again flirt with Red Flag
criteria.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ055>057-066>069-
     077>081-088>095-101>103.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for MOZ055>058-
     066>070-077>081-088>090-094.

KS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA
FIRE WEATHER...Boxell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
714 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-080115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
714 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.
  Limited Non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

A line of thunderstorms over eastern Kansas will continue to
intensify and move west to east through the area late this evening
and overnight from 8 pm through 4 am. Scattered thunderstorms
ahead of the line may also be possible this evening.

All modes of severe weather will be possible, including large
hail, damaging wind gusts to 70 MPH, and tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Behind the frontal passage, a mild and very dry air mass will
return to the region Tuesday. Elevated to significant fire weather
conditions will be possible Tuesday and to a lesser extent on
Wednesday. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas along and
north of the Interstate 44 corridor for Tuesday.

Thunderstorms will again be possible late in the week into the
first part of the weekend as a front sets up in the region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation for storm damage and hail reports will likely
be needed tonight. Check radar trends and monitor watches and
warnings for your area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA