Severe Thunderstorm Warning 318, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
211 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

A weak shortwave moving across the area this afternoon was trying
to aid in developing some showers and storms across along I-49.
This activity may increase in coverage and intensity as we go
through the afternoon hours as noted by the HRRR. The short term
models have struggled with this development through the morning
hours however but will keep monitoring this through the afternoon.
MLCAPE values of around 2000 j/kg and 25kts 0-6km shear could
allow for some stronger storms to develop in the near term along
the MO/AR border in sw MO.

Short and medium range models do continue to show a complex of
storms developing and moving across the Ozarks late this evening
into overnight. A few models like the GFS and ECMWF have rainfall
developing as early as 21z along the I-49 corridor with the
rainfall spreading east overnight. Other models hold all the rain
off until after midnight. Overall, thinking that mid evening will
be the best timing for rain and storms to develop and move east
with initiation along I-49 seeming the best potential location.

Current forecasts from both SPC and WPC indicate slight risks for
severe storms and flooding rain respectively across southeastern
Kansas and western into central Missouri respectively.

The flooding potential will be contingent on training storm
development. If this occurs some locations could see 2 to 3 inches
of rainfall.

Current mesoscale date across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
has nearly 3000j/kg of cape across the area with dewpoints in the
low to middle 70's with several shortwaves expected to move
across the area this evening and overnight. there will be the
potential for some strong to severe storm development. Primary
concerns will be damaging winds but hail to quarters in size will
also be possible.

Some showers and storms are expected to linger across the
southwestern half of the Ozarks through much of the day though
coverage and duration should be limited. Despite the cloud cover
expected for tomorrow, temperatures should climb into the middle
to upper 80s similar to todays forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

The unsettled and active patter will continue to bring shower and
thunderstorm chances to the Ozarks Saturday night through the
middle of next week. The upper level flow pattern will transition
from southwesterly flow this weekend to northwesterly flow aloft
for the middle of the week with upper level ridging moving over
the area by the end of the week.

In general, there is potential for showers and thunderstorms
nearly each day through Wednesday. By next weekend, there is the
potential for additional rainfall but this is quite a was out in
the extended forecast.

Another note on next week's forecast will be the near normal
temperatures expected to start next week with highs around 90 and
heat index values around the 100 degree make Monday and Tuesday.
The pattern changes previously discussed will change by the end of
the week and temperatures by Wednesday through the end of next
week will again be 5 to 10 degrees below normal for August with
highs in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG: A weak upper level disturbance moving across the
area now may kick off a few showers/isolated thunderstorms, but so
far coverage has been very sparse. Additional chances are
expected late in the taf period near a weakening frontal
boundary, but much of this activity will be north of the taf
sites. In general, expect VFR conditions, but mvfr/ifr visibility
will be possible late tonight toward 12z where the sky can remain
clear with light winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1255 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-191800-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1255 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Hail risk.
  Limited Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited Flooding risk.
  Elevated Lightning risk.
  Limited Excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Isolated thunderstorms may be possible late this afternoon. A
complex of thunderstorms is expected to develop across eastern
Kansas late this evening and track east southeast into
southern Missouri overnight. There will be a marginal or limited
risk for a couple strong to severe thunderstorms possible late
this evening and overnight. The main threat will be isolated
damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail up to the size of
quarters.

Depending upon the track of the system, locally heavy rainfall
may be possible where storms move over the same locations.

Heat index values will climb into the middle to upper 90s for
portions of southeastern Missouri and extreme southwestern
Missouri this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Periodic scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
from Sunday through middle of next week.

Heat index values will warm into the middle and upper 90s by
later this weekend and early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation will not be needed through this evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
456 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S RICHARDS            37.86N 94.56W
08/18/2017                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING ONGOING ON A SECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 300 IN
            WESTERN RURAL VERNON COUNTY. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
            DIRECTOR IS OBSERVING SEVERAL INCHES OF FAST MOVING WATER
            OF THIS SECTION OF 300.

&&

DCRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
533 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W RICHARDS            37.90N 94.60W
08/18/2017                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROADWAY AT 200 RD AND
            KATY TRACK ROAD.

&&

SSL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
534 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 ESE RICHARDS          37.90N 94.53W
08/18/2017                   VERNON             MO   PUBLIC

            WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROADWAY AT 600 ROAD
            AND KATY TRACK ROAD.

&&

SSL