Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1256 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

Severe thunderstorm watch 344 has been issued for much of our area
along and northwest of the I-44 corridor through 7 am. Upstream
storms have finally organized into a more solid line. Strong
instability gradient over our area with strongest
mlcape/instability of 3000+j/kg over the western cwfa. Still
seeing near or above 50 kt gusts at a number of station to our
north and with the instability, believe any nighttime weakening
will be slow. Straight line winds will be the main hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A few left over high clouds across SC MO were left behind a
departing MCV Across Northeast Arkansas. Subsidence behind this
feature has left a mostly clear sky for the rest of the area. Temps
and dewpoints have been back on the rise, especially across the
western half of the area where mesoscale analysis shows an
instability gradient setting up. The rest of the afternoon and
evening will be dry.

Late this evening, all eyes will be pointed to the Northwest, namely
the Kansas City area as a complex of storms forms. This complex
looks to follow corfidi vectors southeast into northern portions of
the area after 10pm. There is some uncertainty in exact timing as
some models are slower, some faster. Therefore will need to watch
trends this evening. The northern half or so of the area will see a
chance for some severe wind gusts and perhaps large hail as the
system drops down. The instability gradient that is set up may come
into play this evening as storms ride that gradient. Additionally,
given high moisture content and some potential for training
(especially if storms backbuild), a limited flash flood risk is
possible. Storms will likely exit the area tomorrow morning.

The rest of Saturday looks, in a word, uncomfortable. Late morning
and afternoon clearing will allow strong heating to take place.
Furthermore, moisture pooling ahead of an incoming front will
allow dew points to reach the middle to perhaps upper 70s across
the northern half of the area as well as SE Kansas. The Heat
Advisory has been expanded to include all of SE Kansas, Western
Missouri and into the Lake of the Ozarks region where max heat
indicies near 105 will be common.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

A strong cold front will approach from the north Saturday evening
and storms should fire north of the area and ooze south. With
strong to extreme instability and adequate wind shear, severe
storms looks like a good bet and would not be surprised to see
severe probs increased in future outlooks/discussions. Saturday
evening and overnight will feature the highest chances for these
severe storms. These storms may linger into Sunday, especially
along the Missouri-Arkansas border.

A period of relatively quiet and cooler weather will occur Sunday
through early next week as northwest flow commences. Next decent
chance of rain will occur by mid to late next week as a system
approaches from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A line of storms will move in from the north
early in the taf cycle. Outflow winds can be expected with an
abrupt wind shift toward 09z-12z time frame. Periods of mvfr and
brief ifr visibility will be possible with heavier showers.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MOZ055>057-066>069-077>080-088-089-093-101.

KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

UPDATE...DSA
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
105 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180615-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
105 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited Flooding risk.
  Elevated Lightning risk.
  Elevated Excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Thunderstorms across eastern Kansas into central Missouri will
  slide southeast into and through the area through early this
  morning. The storms will spread into central Missouri between 1
  and 2 am and push south towards Highway 60 by 5 am. Winds up to
  70 mph will be possible with the strongest storms along with
  almost continuous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Dime to
  quarter size hail may also be possible with a few of the
  strongest up drafts. The storms should gradually weaken as they
  push south through the area, but strong winds up to 50 mph will
  remain possible as outflow pushes across southern Missouri on
  to the south into Arkansas around this morning.

  Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also be
  possible if thunderstorms linger or train over the same areas
  for a longer period of time.

  Hot and humid conditions will occur this afternoon as after
  heat index values top out in the 98 to 109 range. The hottest
  conditions will occur across extreme southeastern Kansas and
  western into central Missouri where a Heat Advisory is effect
  for this afternoon.

  Another complex of storms is expected to develop across
  northern Missouri this evening and spread south through the
  area later this evening into the overnight hours. The strongest
  storms are expected north of the area with a gradually
  weakening trends as the storms spread south. There will again
  be a strong to severe storm risk generally along and north of
  I-44 with damaging winds and large hail the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

  A few storms may be possible during the middle of next week,
  additional thunderstorm chances next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotters and emergency managers may be needed for activation
  through the early morning hours and again tonight into early
  Sunday morning, to monitor for wind damage, especially over
  central Missouri. Radar trends and warnings should be monitored
  prior to the arrival of the storms this evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1258 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

MOZ055>057-170700-
Benton MO-Miller MO-Morgan MO-
1258 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BENTON...NORTHERN MILLER
AND MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 1257 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Holden to near Leeton to near Sedalia to
near Otterville to near Bunceton to 8 miles east of Fayette. Movement
was southeast at 55 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lake of The Ozarks...             Eldon...
Versailles...                     Village of Four Seasons...
Lake Ozark...                     Lincoln...
Cole Camp...                      Stover...
Laurie...                         Tuscumbia...
Barnett...                        Syracuse...
Eugene...                         Gravois Mills...
Olean...                          Bagnell...
Ionia...                          Etterville...
Florence...                       Crockerville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Monitor the weather situation closely. Listen for possible warnings
and be prepared to take appropriate action should severe weather
threaten.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3868 9284 3860 9284 3844 9264 3843 9241
      3834 9240 3832 9225 3833 9219 3823 9242
      3821 9288 3833 9327 3846 9352 3851 9351
      3851 9330 3854 9329 3853 9307 3869 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0557Z 303DEG 49KT 3869 9390 3862 9368 3864 9322 3875
9300 3884 9274 3915 9252

Lindenberg