Small Craft Advisory 5, NWS Seattle, WA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Seattle WA
958 AM PST Sun Jan 8 2017

Updated to include the aviation and marine segments.

.SYNOPSIS...A warm front will bring rain and warmer temperatures
to the area today. Heavy snow is possible in the Cascades. Moist
southwest flow will continue Monday and Tuesday. Cooler and drier
weather will develop Tuesday night as the jet stream shifts south
into California. A weak front will probably arrive Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A weak warm front passed through Western WA last
night bringing light precip and noticeably warmer temperatures.
Most areas are above freezing this morning and dew points are
15-20 degrees warmer as well. The next warm front will lift through
the area today with rain spreading north. Temperatures will
continue to moderate. East winds will keep temperatures below
freezing in the passes with several inches of snow expected from
this system - a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect. Gusty east
winds will continue in the East Puget Sound Lowlands with gusts to
50 mph near the Cascade gaps.

Moist SW flow will continue tonight for showers across the area.
Temperatures and dew points will remain above freezing in the
lowlands. A weak upper level disturbance will bring a few more
showers on Monday, mainly to the Cascades.

The next disturbance will move inland Monday night into Tuesday
for another round of showers. Snow levels will drop again Tuesday
night into Wednesday as stronger northerly/offshore flow
develops. Meanwhile, a system will pass into Oregon but some
moisture may clip the southern portion of the CWA. However, the
models have been backing off on the extent of the moisture. 33

.LONG TERM...Previous discussion...The active weather will remain
well to our south on Wednesday and Thursday, and there's just a
chance of light snow flurries from around Seattle southward. There
has been a clear trend in the models over the past couple days
suggesting that our weather will be cooler and drier. So, if
anything, the threat of snow -- even non-accumulation snow -- in
our forecast may be too high. Friday should be a dry weather day
with an upper ridge moving across the region. A relatively weak
Pacific front will probably arrive around Saturday. McDonnal

&&

.AVIATION...An upper level low offshore will result in strong s or
sw flow aloft through much of tonight. Moderately strong low level
ely flow will weaken and become sly tonight behind a weak wmfnt.
Expect areas of MVFR CIGs during the day today. The mtns will be
obscd.

Meanwhile, the Sandpoint profiler showed 35-40 kt southeast winds
about 2k ft above the surface. The mesoscale models also showed
this; therefore, have included LLWS in some of the TAFs through this
evening. This typically occurs ahead of wmfnts approaching the area
from the south. In other words, the winds at the surface are
typically e or nely. The LLWS threat will end with the arrival of
the wmfnt or when surface winds switch to sly.

KSEA...VFR, possibly ocnl MVFR CIGs late this afternoon through this
evening. Winds will remain e or nely thru this afternoon, resulting
in LLWS (winds above the surface are se at 35-40 kt).
Expect winds to become sly about 0600 UTC, with LLWS ending.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over the offshore waters with higher pressure over
Washington will result in moderately strong easterly flow today.
The flow will veer to southerly tonight after the passage of a weak
warm front. The flow will back to easterly on Monday due to falling
pressure over the offshore waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected for the next 7 days.

Note: Due to the long duration of below freezing temperatures over
the last week or so, a number of stream gage readings are being
affected by ice and the data is suspect. Please be aware of that as
you look at stream gage data across our area. Some examples include
Dungeness River near Sequim, several Nooksack River gages, and South
Fork Stillaguamish. These conditions may persist for a few more days
at least.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for East Puget Sound
     Lowlands.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Cascades of
     Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King
     Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.

PZ...Gale Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for Central U.S. Waters
     Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
     James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
     James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
     Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
     To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
     Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance
     U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Northern Inland
     Waters Including The San Juan Islands.

&&

www.weather.gov/seattle

An illustrated version of this forecast discussion can be seen at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html

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